The Vikings giving less than a field goal in this spot creates a valuable play. The Seahawks are clearly better than middle-of-the-road teams, but they struggle when stepping up in class – just like last week against the Packers. The offensive line is in shambles, and that creates all sorts of avenues for Minnesota to attack Geno Smith. Seattle will wind up making some big plays out wide, but there won’t be much opportunity to control the clock against the NFL’s second-ranked run defense. The Vikings will be able to do exactly that and prevail in a road spot that has become less tough than it used to be.

The Vikings have a 12-2 record and have been amazing this year going 9-4 against the spread but for this game what's going to stand out is the total that I like under and they've gone 5-9 to the under this season. The Seahawks have won four out of their last five games covering four of them and they've got there from a good defensive play and ball control going under the total six of their last eight games. I think the Seahawks have a good shot at winning the game over the Vikings but I think the better play is the under.

Word from Seattle is that Geno Smith is apparently back in the fold and available to start this afternoon, while RB Kenneth Walker III also apparently good to go after missing the past two games, the Seahawks should at least have their main weaponry on hand as they try to keep pace with the Rams in the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Minnesota magic continues with Sam Darnold at the controls, and the Vikings on course for an inevitable showdown vs. the Lions. Enough offense both ways so this 42.5 on the totals side doesn't seem especially daunting, as Seattle scorelines have cleared that mark in eight of the past eleven games. Play Vikings-Seahawks Over

The Seahawks coaching staff knows the need to get DK Metcalf more involved. Both head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb have recently been quoted as suggesting that Metcalf be more involved in the offense. This is a spot to target Metcalf, as we know it is hard to run on the Vikings, so teams choose to air it out. The Vikings' defense has given up the most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this season. I like backing Metcalf to have a big game today.

The answer is yes. We have hit Sam Darnold's over passing touchdown line before, and I'm going back to this prop today. Darnold is 5th in the NFL in touchdown passes (29). He has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in 10 of his 14 games this season. There is a matchup signal with the Seahawks too. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, Darnold has used play action at the 6th highest rate (29.3%) and has an 11.2% touchdown rate, leading the league. The Seahawks' defense against play action allows a 7.7% touchdown rate, which is 31st in the league. I love going back to this Darnold prop at this price.

Seattle gets Minnesota in the perfect spot; fresh off a dominant Monday Night Football performance now traveling across the country on a short week. Seattle was forced to play long stretches last Sunday against Green Bay without their QB Geno Smith and it showed. Geno has been upgraded today along with Kenneth Walker and a defense that's trended upwards. Sprinkle in some weather and there's a great recipe for a live home dog today.

With the uncertainty at QB for the Seahawks, the Vikings should be able to go on the road and get some key stops defensively. There's enough offensive balance for them to figure out a path to success vs Mike McDonald's defense enough to cover this short spread.

We just saw Josh Jacobs run all over this Seattle defense and the Lions did the same. That film will resonate in the Vikings scouting reports. Aaron Jones is in great form and has over 100 scrimmage yards in 4 of the last 6 games. Has been healthier in the second half of the season. Will get a lot of touches with dome team playing outdoors. Will be a factor in the screen game vs this defense for sure.

The Vikings are the best covering team outdoors since '20: 19-9-4 ATS. They are 8-2-3 in the last 13 such games and 9-3 SU in that span. MIN is 9-4-1 ATS this season and SEA is 2-5-1 ATS at home and 5-9-2 ATS in the last 2 years at home. Vikings 7-3 ATS outside of the tough NFC North (covering by 6.7 PPG). Geno Smith injury could be massive with Sam Howell looking terrible. SEA is 3-4-2 ATS outside the middling NFC West. Vikings pushing for the top seed and Sam Darnold playing at an elite level. Seattle pass rush lacks bite. Seattle OL is a major cause of concern.