For all of the Jets' failures this season, they have proven they can beat the worst teams on their schedule, with wins already vs. the Titans and Patriots. The latter was a 24-3 job on a Thursday in September at Met Life when what was then Robert Saleh's defense put the collar on Jacoby Brissett (and, late in the game, UNC rookie Drake Maye), limiting the Pats to 139 yards and sacking NE QBs seven times. Now, on October 17, Saleh is gone (Jeff Ulbrich now NY's coach) and Maye has replaced Brissett at QB in the Patriots lineup. But no indication things are better off with Maye, as the Pats don't have a win (SU or vs spread) since the Cincy opener. Play Jets

This is -350 or bettter at every book except this one. I can’t turn down 80 cents of value on a money line

Since the Jets made the coaching change, Breece Hall has gotten a massive workload, in both the rushing and passing game. He's had 15 targets in the past two weeks. He has a pristine matchup vs. the Patriots in a likely positive game script.

New England's Hunter Henry has been a lot more involved since Drake Maye took over under center with Henry easily clearing this number in back-to-back games. Yes, he had only two catches for 9 yards in the first meeting vs. the Jets, but that was with Jacoby Brissett under center and Henry essentially just a blocker.

The Jets showed all the signs of busting out…they were as unlucky as anything else. They should get to 24 here v NE

The Jets don't have much they can count on offensively these days, but Hall in the screen game is huge for them. He has 11 catches for 159 yards since they made the head coaching and play caller change on offense, he's second among all RBs in receptions, he went over this against New England in the first meeting (4 catches for 29 yards). Aaron Rodgers is throwing to RBs 22% of the time, second-most in the NFL. He's already sick of being hit and on the road will be leaning into making layups and keeping chains moving

The Jets got into Steelers territory on three of their five second-half drives but didn't score as the offense continues to struggle to put up points. That should change against a Patriots defense that has been terrible for most of the season, with only Tyler Huntley keeping them from giving up 30+ points in four straight. And the Jets defense hasn't looked very good either with Russell Wilson beating them up and down the field on Sunday. With Drake Maye under center, we should be looking to the Over on most Pats games, and I love it on this total provided the weather doesn't get in the way.