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Sun, Oct 278:25 pm UTCNorthwest Stadium
45 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Chicago
Bears
CHI
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-12
ATS9-7
O/U7-10-0
FINAL SCORE
15
-
18
Washington
Commanders
WAS
Last 5 ATS
W/L12-5
ATS10-6
O/U11-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
5-12
Win /Loss
12-5
9-7
Spread
10-6
7-10-0
Over / Under
11-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
CHI @ WAS
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MONEYLINE
CHI @ WAS
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OVER / UNDER
CHI @ WAS
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38%
PUBLIC
62%
MONEY
36%
PUBLIC
64%
MONEY
Over84%
PUBLIC
Under16%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Total Home PointsWashington Under 23.5 Total Pts -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+250
3-0 in Last 3 NFL Team Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

The Bears defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. I’d be very surprised if anybody hits 24 against him this year let alone Washington with a banged up quarterback. I’ll continue to play teams under Chicago.

Pick Made: Oct 27, 5:03 pm UTC on Caesars
Money LineChicago +100
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1341.5
104-77-1 in Last 182 NFL Picks
+194.5
8-6 in Last 14 NFL ML Picks
Erik's Analysis:

I think the Bears are an ascending team who have an incredibly underrated D. They are rested and healthier.

Pick Made: Oct 27, 4:55 pm UTC on Caesars
Money LineChicago +102
LOSS
Unit1.5
+493
9-7 in Last 16 NFL ML Picks
+176
2-1 in Last 3 WAS ML Picks
Jason's Analysis:

We are already on the Bears -2.5 and feel comfortable with that. They are the better all around team with a significantly better defense and healthier off a bye. Line moved and money changed a ton with Jayden Daniels now playing, which isn't a surprise. But a rib injury is a big deal, it can be easily aggravated and if you take away the rookies legs, the offense bogs down, especially against a unit like this, allowing 16.2 PPG since Week 12 of last year. Caleb Williams quite likely has the better throwing day and I like the Bears to get explosive runs as well against a suspect defense. I see value in doubling down in this spot.

Pick Made: Oct 27, 3:09 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadWashington -0.5 -112
WIN
Unit1.0
+1907
60-37-3 in Last 100 NFL ATS Picks
+635
20-12-2 in Last 34 CHI ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Will he or won't he? With the odds flipping slightly toward the Commanders' favor, it appears rookie QB Jayden Daniels will do his sensational thing against Chicago. Even if he cannot, Marcus Mariota is a capable replacement, as he showed in handling the bulk of Washington's blowout win last week. The Bears have been fortunate to face mostly middling offenses this season. Not so here, with the Commanders tied for first in points tallied. D.C. will be rocking if J.D. plays, which could provide a home-field edge that is largely lacking around the league.

Pick Made: Oct 27, 2:14 pm UTC on BetRivers
Total Away PointsChicago Over 22.5 Total Pts -119
LOSS
Unit1.0
+354
3-0 in Last 3 NFL Team Props Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

The Bears have found their groove offensively, and I expect an inspired performance from Caleb Williams in the first of what will likely be many Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels matchup. I like Chicago to score 24+ here.

Pick Made: Oct 27, 1:52 pm UTC on BetRivers
Point SpreadWashington +3 -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+252
6-3 in Last 9 NFL Picks
+180
3-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+371
6-2 in Last 8 CHI ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Thus number has moved a bit as the status of Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains in the air. But anyone who watched backup Marcus Mariota operate last week vs. the Panthers after Daniels went out would not be afraid to back the Commanders if he has to get the start on Sunday as Mariota was near-flowless (18 of 23 for 205 YP, 2 TDs and no picks) in the 40-7 romp. Yes the Bears have won three straight but have taken advantage of either troubled (Panthers and Jags) or banged-up (Rams) opposition in the past three wins. New HC Dan Quinn wasn't there, but rest assured Washington remembers the 40-20 beatdown the Bears administered last October 5, and wants to return the favor. Play Commanders

Pick Made: Oct 27, 6:09 am UTC on BetRivers
Avatar
Total Passing TouchdownsCaleb Williams Over 1.5 Total Passing Touchdowns +108
LOSS
Unit0.5
+214
4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

Fresh off his bye, Caleb Williams comes back to DC, where he's from, to face a secondary he can easily attack. Sure there is a little narrative here with Williams coming back home and coming off a bye. But he still has a great matchup vs. the Washington secondary and a full complement of weapons. In his last two games he threw for four and two touchdowns respectively. I like this plus-money number for him to throw for two or more touchdowns Sunday.

Pick Made: Oct 26, 3:47 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsD'Andre Swift Over 56.5 Total Rushing Yards -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+1464
40-22 in Last 62 NFL Player Props Picks
Sia's Analysis:

D'Andre Swift has been cruising over the last three games averaging 18 rushing attempts and 85 yards per game. His Rushing Attempt prop this week is 14.5 (juiced to the under), but even if he only gets 13-14 carries, he can sail over this line thanks to a very giving Washington rush defense (Washington is also no stranger to giving up explosive runs). I think it could be a big game for Swift, but even an average game gets him over this number.

Pick Made: Oct 26, 1:02 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total ReceptionsTerry McLaurin Under 4.5 Total Receptions -105
LOSS
Unit0.5
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

Very quietly, the Bears have the best shutdown corner in the sport. I refuse to say his name because I don’t want him to get attention. But he often travels and should be on Terry a vast majority of the time.

Pick Made: Oct 25, 12:04 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadChicago -2.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+38
5-4 in Last 9 NFL ATS Picks
+90
2-1 in Last 3 WAS ATS Picks
Jason's Analysis:

This will cross 3 I figure when it becomes clear Jayden Daniels isn't playing, but I don't see them risking a rib this early in the season. The kid is too special. Bears allowing 16 PPG since Week 12 of last season, Bears 5-1 ATS and the offense is on fire facing a terrible defense. Chicago can sellout to stop the run and Marcus Mariota ain't beating the defense. Caleb Williams will be more than good enough to cover by a FG a few miles from where he played high school ball. Bears are the more well-rounded team and healthier coming off a bye. Don't be fooled by what Mariota did vs a fugazi Panthers D with a lead; he will turn it over here.

Pick Made: Oct 24, 2:04 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerD'Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown Scorer +130
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

He's scored in 3 straight games and been a huge part of this offense taking off around rookie QB Caleb Williams. This is a homecoming game for WIlliams, who played high school ball in DC, and there will be plenty of high percentage opportunities for Swift int he RZ vs the D that ranks 29th in the RZ. He is becoming their drive finisher and I see the Bears having no shortage of scoring opportunities in this game.

Pick Made: Oct 24, 1:48 am UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Rushing + Receiving YardsD'Andre Swift Over 78.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Swift has found his role and his legs in this offense, the offensive line has jelled and this defense is ripe to be shredded. Swift has 119+ scrimmage yards in three straight games, teams have to respect Caleb Williams pushing the ball downfield now and the box is not as congested. Swift is averaging 135 scrimmage yards dyring the last three weeks, he knows the Commanders well from his time with the Eagles and the feature back is fresh off a bye. Game has major potential playoff implications and Bears will try to smart with their rookie QB and I see the ball in Swift's hands quite a bit vs a D that is 28th against the rush.

Pick Made: Oct 24, 1:45 am UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadChicago -2.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+775
53-41-1 in Last 95 NFL ATS Picks
+1352
55-39-5 in Last 99 CHI ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Jayden Daniels didn't practice on Wednesday with what's being called a week-to-week injury, and I can't see the Commanders risking the long-term health of their superstar QB by letting him play in this game against a very good Bears defense. Marcus Mariota led the team to a huge win last week but he's a massive downgrade, to the point this line should be at least -3.5 if he starts and likely a point higher. The Bears offense was trending up before the bye and has had two weeks to prepare for this one, so I expect this will be a struggle for the Washington defense. Getting this now before it gets to 3 later in the week.

Pick Made: Oct 23, 11:31 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Chicago Bears
Friday, May 23, 2025
Avatar
DE
Xavier Carlton
Pro Draft PrepOut
Thursday, May 22, 2025
Avatar
TE
Colston Loveland
Shoulder - AC JointQuestionable
Wednesday, May 21, 2025
Avatar
WR
Luther Burden III
UndisclosedQuestionable
Wednesday, May 07, 2025
Avatar
DT
Shemar Turner
LegQuestionable
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025
Avatar
DT
Andrew Billings
PectoralQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Ryan Bates
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Elijah Hicks
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Jaylon Johnson
QuadricepsQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Braxton Jones
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Jaquan Brisker
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
RB
Ian Wheeler
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
QB
Caleb Williams
WristQuestionable
Washington Commanders
Friday, May 23, 2025
Avatar
LB
Ale Kaho
UndisclosedOut
Sunday, May 18, 2025
Avatar
NT
Daron Payne
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Samuel Cosmi
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
LB
Jordan Magee
HamstringQuestionable
Avatar
DT
Norell Pollard
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Tyler Owens
AnkleQuestionable

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
80%
4-1-1
5-1-1
83%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
1-1-1
3-0
100%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
50%
1-1-1
3-0
100%
When Spread was -1 to +2.5
SPREAD
When Spread was -2.5 to +1
50%
1-1
1-0
100%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
1-1-1
3-0
100%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
0%
0-0-1
0-0-1
0%
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
0%
0-1
0-0
0%
After >8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
100%
1-0
5-0-1
100%
vs WAS
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CHI
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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