The Bears defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. I’d be very surprised if anybody hits 24 against him this year let alone Washington with a banged up quarterback. I’ll continue to play teams under Chicago.

I think the Bears are an ascending team who have an incredibly underrated D. They are rested and healthier.

We are already on the Bears -2.5 and feel comfortable with that. They are the better all around team with a significantly better defense and healthier off a bye. Line moved and money changed a ton with Jayden Daniels now playing, which isn't a surprise. But a rib injury is a big deal, it can be easily aggravated and if you take away the rookies legs, the offense bogs down, especially against a unit like this, allowing 16.2 PPG since Week 12 of last year. Caleb Williams quite likely has the better throwing day and I like the Bears to get explosive runs as well against a suspect defense. I see value in doubling down in this spot.

Will he or won't he? With the odds flipping slightly toward the Commanders' favor, it appears rookie QB Jayden Daniels will do his sensational thing against Chicago. Even if he cannot, Marcus Mariota is a capable replacement, as he showed in handling the bulk of Washington's blowout win last week. The Bears have been fortunate to face mostly middling offenses this season. Not so here, with the Commanders tied for first in points tallied. D.C. will be rocking if J.D. plays, which could provide a home-field edge that is largely lacking around the league.

The Bears have found their groove offensively, and I expect an inspired performance from Caleb Williams in the first of what will likely be many Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels matchup. I like Chicago to score 24+ here.

Thus number has moved a bit as the status of Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains in the air. But anyone who watched backup Marcus Mariota operate last week vs. the Panthers after Daniels went out would not be afraid to back the Commanders if he has to get the start on Sunday as Mariota was near-flowless (18 of 23 for 205 YP, 2 TDs and no picks) in the 40-7 romp. Yes the Bears have won three straight but have taken advantage of either troubled (Panthers and Jags) or banged-up (Rams) opposition in the past three wins. New HC Dan Quinn wasn't there, but rest assured Washington remembers the 40-20 beatdown the Bears administered last October 5, and wants to return the favor. Play Commanders

Fresh off his bye, Caleb Williams comes back to DC, where he's from, to face a secondary he can easily attack. Sure there is a little narrative here with Williams coming back home and coming off a bye. But he still has a great matchup vs. the Washington secondary and a full complement of weapons. In his last two games he threw for four and two touchdowns respectively. I like this plus-money number for him to throw for two or more touchdowns Sunday.

D'Andre Swift has been cruising over the last three games averaging 18 rushing attempts and 85 yards per game. His Rushing Attempt prop this week is 14.5 (juiced to the under), but even if he only gets 13-14 carries, he can sail over this line thanks to a very giving Washington rush defense (Washington is also no stranger to giving up explosive runs). I think it could be a big game for Swift, but even an average game gets him over this number.

Very quietly, the Bears have the best shutdown corner in the sport. I refuse to say his name because I don’t want him to get attention. But he often travels and should be on Terry a vast majority of the time.

This will cross 3 I figure when it becomes clear Jayden Daniels isn't playing, but I don't see them risking a rib this early in the season. The kid is too special. Bears allowing 16 PPG since Week 12 of last season, Bears 5-1 ATS and the offense is on fire facing a terrible defense. Chicago can sellout to stop the run and Marcus Mariota ain't beating the defense. Caleb Williams will be more than good enough to cover by a FG a few miles from where he played high school ball. Bears are the more well-rounded team and healthier coming off a bye. Don't be fooled by what Mariota did vs a fugazi Panthers D with a lead; he will turn it over here.

He's scored in 3 straight games and been a huge part of this offense taking off around rookie QB Caleb Williams. This is a homecoming game for WIlliams, who played high school ball in DC, and there will be plenty of high percentage opportunities for Swift int he RZ vs the D that ranks 29th in the RZ. He is becoming their drive finisher and I see the Bears having no shortage of scoring opportunities in this game.

Swift has found his role and his legs in this offense, the offensive line has jelled and this defense is ripe to be shredded. Swift has 119+ scrimmage yards in three straight games, teams have to respect Caleb Williams pushing the ball downfield now and the box is not as congested. Swift is averaging 135 scrimmage yards dyring the last three weeks, he knows the Commanders well from his time with the Eagles and the feature back is fresh off a bye. Game has major potential playoff implications and Bears will try to smart with their rookie QB and I see the ball in Swift's hands quite a bit vs a D that is 28th against the rush.

Jayden Daniels didn't practice on Wednesday with what's being called a week-to-week injury, and I can't see the Commanders risking the long-term health of their superstar QB by letting him play in this game against a very good Bears defense. Marcus Mariota led the team to a huge win last week but he's a massive downgrade, to the point this line should be at least -3.5 if he starts and likely a point higher. The Bears offense was trending up before the bye and has had two weeks to prepare for this one, so I expect this will be a struggle for the Washington defense. Getting this now before it gets to 3 later in the week.