This is a larger spread than one would think appropriate for the Chiefs in this spot, but the Chargers are just too beat up on both sides of the ball to truly compete with arguably the best team in the NFL. Asking Kansas City to win by margin has been difficult the last two years, but this is not a high-powered offense Los Angeles is offering – like the one KC struggled against in Cincinnati – that will keep this game close. The Chiefs already beat a better version of this team (Ravens) by a touchdown in Week 1, and Justin Herbert is still hobbled, which should allow KC to knock him of his spot regularly.

The Chargers are without suspended safety Derwin James and two starting offensive limemen. Even so, the Chargers have been a persistent thorn for their divisional rival and it wouldn't be surprising to see a one-score game.

With linebacker Junior Colson (hamstring) out again in Week 4, look for Daiyan Henley to wear the green dot, play every snap, and rack up at least eight combined tackles against the Chiefs. Henley has registered 19.5 percent and 18.5 percent tackle rates the past two games. The second-year player out of Washington State has excellent burst and is good in coverage too.

The Chargers did Kansas City backers a solid by saying it intends to start QB Justin Herbert, which effectively knocked the spread below a touchdown. Herbert was constrained by an injured ankle last Sunday and left in the third quarter. Could happen again. L.A. might be 6-0 ATS as a big underdog with Herbert behind center, but he was generally healthy on those occasions. Herbert could be under siege with OTs Rashawn Salter and Joe Alt sidelined. On defense, the unit's cornerstones, DE Joey Bosa (injury) and S Derwin James (suspension), are scratches. K.C.'s offense has yet to gear up to its usual standards, but how much longer can TE Travis Kielce not be Kielce?

The Kelce conspiracies are out in full force now, and he has looked a bit sluggish but this number is too low to ignore. He has yet to get more than 5 targets in a game and with Derwin James suspended he should feast here. Kelce averages 8 grabs for 128 yards in last 5 vs Chargers. Brock Bowers went for 58 in Week 1 vs LAC. Chiefs RZ issues likely mean more emphasis on Kelce now with others injured. He's overdue for a long catch and run.

Derwin James is suspended, meaning the Chargers could be without five of their top players for Sunday's divisional showdown with K.C. Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater all left the Week 3 loss at Pittsburgh with injuries. As the injuries mounted, the Chargers got bullied in the second half of a 20-10 loss. Now LA has to deal with a far more explosive offense. Patrick Mahomes (25 TDs, 6 INTs, 103.3 rating vs. Chargers) typically thrives in this matchup.

Scouts I trust were adamant since the summer that the Chargers D was fixed. They were right. Hoping Derwin James suspension gets lowered on appeal. Either way with LA injuries up front Harbaugh might run the ball 55 times, even if its for 3.1/carry to shorten game. KC's RZ woes are real and they aren't running up score on anyone. Not sure the Chargers score 13 here. Big spread scares me in year of the dog; prefer the under. KC road games avg 39 pts since start of '23, 6th lowest in NFL. Jim Harbaugh 23-10 to the under in last 33; LAC game totals 32, 29, 30 this season. Spags D is the star for KC. 6 of last 10 in series went under.