Save for an early-season win over the then-struggling Bears, we're hard-pressed to find an easy game for the Chiefs. Only three of their scorelines landed above this -11 price, and two of those games were competitive affairs vs. the Chargers and these Raiders at Vegas on November 26. The Raiders were out to an early lead in that game and still within 21-17 into the 4th Q before KC pulled away late, and that's the only game in six with Antonio Pierce in charge that the Raiders have failed to cover. Vegas has also covered two of its last three at Arrowhead and has been notorious for staying close in this old and often-nasty rivalry. Play Raiders

Eight straight Raiders-Chiefs games have cleared this 40.5 threshold. Why might this Christmas game be different? Vegas comes in bit shorthanded minus Josh Jacobs and did score 63 without him last week vs. the Chargers, but that sort of scoring explosion is often followed by a slower-paced affair. The strength of this Raiders team has been its defense anyway, and it's not the same KC this year, either, having landed "under" 9 of the last 12. The Nov. 26 game ended 31-17, but the Chiefs were playing catchup at an accelerated paced after Vegas bolted ahead early, thanks in part to a 63-yard TD by Jacobs. Remember, Vegas played a 3-0 game two weeks ago! Play Raiders-Chiefs "Under"

Raiders linebacker Divine Deablo has become a fulltime player alongside Robert Spillane, and Deablo has only missed one tackle in the past five games. He had 12 tackles in the rout of the Chargers. Although Deablo left that game early with an ankle issue, he had extra rest for this game and was not on the injury report. The Chiefs are huge favorites and possibly will be running the ball a lot in the second half. That could help us cash this plus-money prop.

This spread is slightly up from where it was a month ago (-9.5) when the Chiefs beat the Raiders on the road, mind you, in Las Vegas. And I actually think it would be even higher if the Raiders were not coming off their demolition of the Chargers. Kansas City has stumbled, but it's back home against a beatable defense that consistently fails to pressure Patrick Mahomes, who has finally zeroed in on a No. 1 receiver in Rashee Rice. We also know that Las Vegas struggles against tight ends, so Travis Kelce should bounce back. Plus, KC's defense is no slouch. This was more attractive at -10, but with Isiah Pacheco back, I like the Chiefs to win by margin.

He will be not just a chain mover but a big-play guy against this defense. Chiefs will work to get those seam routes going again and Raiders secondary does not match up well. Kelce went easily over this in 3 straight before a tough matchup at New England. He flirted with 100 against this defense on the road at a time when he was still the only guy you had to focus on in the passing game. With fewer and fewer options Mahomes can trust, he'll go big or go home early feeding the ones he knows can make plays for him.

Kelce has gone over this - even in a down year - in every game he's played at Arrowhead this season: 6,7,12,9,7. The only "home" game he did not was in Germany. The 12 and the 9 game in division games, where he tends to feast. Raiders allow 79% completions to TE, 31st in the NFL. Kelce went over this in the game at LV. I bet he gets 2-3 targets on opening drive script. Averages over 9 TAR/AFC West game this season.

He owns the Raiders in his career and is overdue to a TD and who doesn't want to make Taylor and the Swifties happy on Christmas Day? I'm old enough to remember him catching four against Vegas last year and Mahomes and his main Mahomie need to get back in sync down the stretch and the schedule should be quite conducive to it.

This has been an easy 3 TD, 300+ yard game for Mahomes in his career. The lowly Raiders, at home, with something to play for. Forgetaboutit. Okay these aren't the same Chiefs, but Mahomes went for 424 vs the LAC at home and 306 vs DEN and Raiders are 1-4 outdoors with the worst opposing passer rating in the NFL (105) with 74% completions and 9 TDs allowed to 2 INT. Mahomes carved them in Vegas and Chiefs need to build some confidence in the passing game ahead of the playoffs.

These clubs combined for 48 points in their first meeting and it could have been more if not for missed opportunities by both clubs. This number has plummeted from the opener of 42.5 and the move feels perplexing. The weather is supposed to be cool and rainy but far from total misery in Kansas City. The Chiefs will look to keep developing what has been an inconsistent offense, while the Raiders exist somewhere between the club that was blanked by the Vikings and the one that erupted for 63 against the Chargers. Similar to their first meeting, Las Vegas should do enough to send this Over the posted total.

The iconic Chiefs TE has had an off season by his lofty standards, influenced by injuries and the possibility that the battle-tested, 34-year-old might have lost a step. Even so, he has historically buried the rival Raiders, with 11 career TDs against them, including a memorable 4-TD home game against them last year. Look for Kelce to end his four-game TD drought Monday against a divisional rival.

Much is being made about Kansas City's 10-1 straight-up mark over the Raiders during the Patrick Mahomes era. Overlooked in the chatter is that K.C.'s offense is the worst yet with Mahomes. The Chiefs have averaged just 20 ppg amid their 3-4 spiral over the last seven games. Las Vegas is 10-4 on Unders this season, which hints at a moderate score that favors a team ATS receiving double digits. The Raiders are coming off a Thursday night massacre of the Chargers and brim with confidence while getting extra days of rest.