The Vikings' defense has risen to a No. 6 ranking courtesy of the game-planning by D-coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota's offense isn't much with backup QB Nick Mullens. Prior to last week's game, the Vikes engaged in a pair outings in which 22 and three points were scored. The home side will do its part to carve out an Under. Detroit is the wild card, but QB Jared Goff has had a noticeable home-road disparity.

Lions safety Ifeatu Melifonwu will make his third straight start, as offseason acquisition C.J. Gardner-Johnson isn't quite ready to return. The player known as "Iffy" has registered 13 tackles in two starts and posted a 14.5 percent tackle rate in Week 15 vs. Denver. DC Aaron Glenn told reporters that Melifonwu, a former cornerback, is "able to cover like he needs to, like a corner, but he’s tough enough and physical enough as a safety to get down in the box and go make plays." Melifonwu played at least 97 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and Sunday should be no different.

Josh Reynolds has put up 41 and 44 receiving yards the past two games, but before that he had gone Under this prop total in five straight. And with Jameson Williams' usage growing (season-high 7 targets last week) alongside the stable target shares belonging to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, Reynolds figures to have fewer opportunities.

The Vikings host their division rival Lions as +3 home underdogs. Nick Mullens proved to be their most serviceable option at quarterback. He may find success through the air against this abysmal Lions secondary, who are responsible for their defense allowing 25+ points to opponents in seven of their last 8 games. Vikings head coach Brian Flores has made his defense a top-5 unit this season. Flores' defense blitzes at the highest rate (50%) in the NFL, and Lions QB Jared Goff's passing metrics drop off significantly against the blitz. I like the Vikings as home dogs in this NFC North battle, with their playoff hopes on the line.

It's been a strange season for Justin Jefferson who has dealt with different QBs and injuries, however this looks like a fantastic spot to back the reigning OPOY against a subpar Detroit secondary. Detroit also implements double coverage at one of the lowest rates in the league and give up a ton of production to first reads. This game is being played in a dome and Detroit should be able to push Minnesota into a high volume passing environment. Look for Justin Jefferson to have a big game.

Jefferson had seven catches on 10 targets last week at the Bengals, exactly what we needed to see. But more importantly, Nick Mullens knew the assignment and targeted Jefferson on 31.3% of his passes. Now the Vikings are at home against one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the Lions. Outside WRs like Jefferson have a 76.1% catch rate against Detroit in its past five games. That doesn't include what the Lions give up to receivers who line up in the slot. And in case you like history, you should know Jefferson has at least seven grabs in four of his past five against the Lions. I'd play it even if it were as low as minus-115.

In his only matchup with his former team last season, Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson caught six of eight targets for 77 yards in Detroit. I'm expecting another big game Sunday vs. the Lions as Hockenson continues to be a huge part of Minnesota's offense. He has six-plus targets in 10 straight games and this is a favorable matchup for tight ends in general. In Nick Mullens' first start last week, he targeted Hockenson seven times, second-most behind Justin Jefferson.

The 3.5s likely aren't coming back so jumping in now. The Vikings have won the past five home meetings with Detroit. Brian Flores' aggressive blitzing scheme should give Jared Goff problems; Goff ranks 29th in PFF grade against the blitz. Minnesota also shuts down the run, allowing 3.7 yards per carry. While Detroit's potent offense won't be completely shut down, I like Nick Mullens to have another big game throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. If he eliminates the turnovers, Minnesota is live to win outright.

Goff will be getting rid of the ball quickly here and the rookie TE is a first look in many of those sequences. A bunch of 10 yard catches will add up. He's valuable in the RZ and third down and any critical spot. Can rumble after the catch too Vikings are 30th in NFL in completion % to TEs. He's over this in 2 of the last 3 games.

Gibbs should see the bulk of the work in this game. Running with Montgomery against this defense isn't going to be all that effective. Gibbs's explosive plays will be the difference. Gibbs is over this number in 7 of the last 8 games. Vikings are 4th in the NFL vs the rush and short passes and screens will be vital. Vikings blitz a ton and Gibbs should be the hot on a lot of those looks.