Should be a close game with both teams struggling on their way in. The Steelers have fallen off defensively, but they do get T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith back. The Colts were pitiful offensively last week but should get more opportunities than they did against the Bengals, which had a competent quarterback and receiving corps that limited possessions. Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen is too creative not to have enough in his game plan to outscore Pittsburgh. Really the only concern is an implosion from Gardner Minshew, but getting Zack Moss touches in the passing game should keep some of the pressure off.

Jonathan Taylor isn't there to finish drives on the ground and the Steelers are 8th in RZ D. Since Week 9 (last 5 games) IND is 29th in RZ (43%) and 30th on 3rd down. Gulp. Gay should get ample opportunity today - he has 2 FGA or more in 8 of the last 9 games. The fear with these props is being on wrong end of a blowout, but Steelers struggle to score. Gay isn't a special kicker but I am playing the situation. Made 6 of 7 in two previous games to Week 14, when they fell behind big to Bengals. Steelers allow 2 FGA/G and I see more like 3 or 4 here, especially if he hits an early one.

We have seen what we needed to see from the Steelers the past two weeks when letting the Cards and Patriots push them around at home despite entering Pittsburgh with a mere two wins each. Mitch Trubisky is not igniting the offense (why not give Mason Rudolph a look?) and the fact is that Mike Tomlin was doing it with mirrors in the first half of the season. Indy's playoff push seems more legitimate with wins in four of five, and Gardner Minshew bringing a lot more spark to the Indy offense that Trubisky the other way. Play Colts

So if we are correct that the Colts will try to mimic what the Pats, Steelers and Bengals have done with the main RB in the passing game in recent weeks, and Moss is in store for 6-8 targets and will catch half of them, then barring a 10-yard loss (it happens, more than I care to rehash) this looks appetizing. Moss has 7 games with 2+ catches (remember Taylor cut into his share before his injury) and is over this in 5 of them and right at 15 in another. And in 6 of those 7 games, he has a reception of 15+.

New England showed the Colts last week that a RB could do in the screen game, especially with the QB a little bit mobile to move the pocket. No reason at all why Minshew and Moss can't duplicate what Zappe and Zeke did a week ago. Steelers clamp down on receivers pretty well and run defense is much improved through the season, but guys like Mixon and Henry have prospered catching balls vs this defense in recent weeks. Moss has 11 targets the last 2 games with Taylor out, and 8 last week against an AFC North opponent.

I realize this line has moved toward the Steelers and I'm happy to take the ML at such a small price. The Steelers have been horrific offensively for most of the year and are now starting get exposed defensively. The Colts have also been playing above their head a bit (hence, my fade of them last week against the Bengals), but I have far fewer concerns with the Colts ability to generate points. We get another chance to fade Trubisky and now we get him on the road.

Both these teams looked bad enough last week that it's hard to back either. I told myself I'd be out on the Colts moving forward after they were bludgeoned by the Bengals, but this Steelers offense should be easier to slow down considering they haven't scored more than two TDs in a game since Week 7 and that's with just one game of Mitchell Trubisky at QB. The Colts offense has been held under 20 just twice this season, and the Steelers defense isn't good enough to keep them in check. Provided Gardner Minshew doesn't throw the game away, I think the Colts win here.

Harris has been over this mark in 4 of his past 6 and is clearly the lead rusher for the Steelers. The team has bailed on him only in games when his efficiency has been downright poor, but with over a week to get ready for this matchup, he should be fresher than normal. The Colts have allowed 4.6 yards per carry over their past four games. That number improved last week with Grover Stewart back, but that shouldn't deter the Steelers. Moreover, offenses are running right at the Colts including 29 RB rushes by Cincinnati, 37 by Tennessee and 33 by New England -- three offenses that run the ball to shorten the game and not overexpose their QBs -- just like the Steelers.

The Colts have been embarrassed by enemy running backs of late, giving up 88 or more yards to SEVEN running back in only their last FOUR games. Harris has 15 or more touches in nine of his last 11 games and I expect the same as Pittsburgh clearly can't rely on Mitchell Trubisky to win them the contest on Saturday. Harris and Jaylen Warren both should have productive games in Week 15 and this rushing/receiving number feels a bit low to me.

Jaylen Warren has arguably been Pittsburgh's best offensive player this season and continues to make a strong case for more touches in the Steelers backfield. Warren has handled at least 9 attempts in five of the Steelers last six games with his only miss coming last week against New England in a game where Pittsburgh was forced to abandon the run, in addition to playing an elite NE run defense. That won't be the case this week against a Colts defense that ranks in the bottom five in nearly every rushing metric. I expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on their backfield with Mitchell Trubisky under center in a game with huge playoff implications.

The Steelers will be running the ball a ton on Saturday. There isn't any way around that. And for all of Jaylen Warren's elusiveness he doesn't see nearly as much of the ball as Harris. The bigger back continues to get the most carries and Harris is over this in 4 of the last 6 games, with 15-15 more of his sweet spot. Steelers have the 2nd most run plays in the NFL since Week 8. TEN and CIN leaned into their bigger backs with good success the last two weeks (Mixon and Henry), and Patriots went more with Stevenson than Zeke and wore Colts down. Harris is the guy in redzone as well.

Hard to back MVP Mitch, especially on the road. But Minshew is beat up, Colts have no run game, have been outplayed lately and aren't good at home. Steelers (3-2 on road) also have rest advantage. If Mitch can avoid the pick six (PIT has fewest giveaways in NFL) and Steelers run the ball 35+ times they win. Colts have allowed 3+ sacks in 6 of last 7 and I see heavy pressure from PIT here. Steelers 12-2 in last 14 vs AFC South and IND 2-12 last 14 vs AFC North (did win at BAL this year). I see PIT rallying around Tomlin with his alleged job security becoming a national story. Colts fairy tale ride coming to an end for their rookie HC.

Again, Steelers cannot let this incredibly limited passer further wreck their season. Steelers are second in rushing attempts in the NFL since Week 8 and I see another all hands on deck game on the ground here. Mitch's best asset is on the ground and he, Harris and Warren all end up with 10+ carries in the right game script. He can bull over people and has good vision. A duplicate of last week's 8 for 30 with a TD doesn't seem like asking too much on a fast track, in a dome, against a far lesser defense than the Pats group he faced at home last week.

Money Mitch ran 8 times last game in his first start in a long time on a short week and what he did with his legs was way better than anything through the air. Last two times he has come into a game in relief of Pickett, he has at least 3 carries and, again, that's less than a full game. Colts haven't seen many running QBs but PIT might steal some of what Saints did with Taysom Hill in RZ that worked vert well. With season on line I would think Mitch has been told tuck and run if you don't see anything. I also see very real kneel-down potential to help us get over for a nice ROI.

Trubisky kept the ball 8 times last week against an elite Pats defense - particularly stout against the run - and scored a TD. Lord knows no one wants him chucking the ball around, and especially not in the redzone. I would think pass attempts are kept to a minimum. Only one team has allowed more rushing TDs than the Colts, and 5 have come to QBs. Steelers refuse to feature Warren in RZ and Harris only has 4 all season. For nearly 5-1 return, I see MVP Mitch trying a few keepers here.

The Steelers haven't played a road game all season that has gone over this total. And, in fact, in the 8 total games they have played since their bye, none have gone over this total. The Colts played a bunch of wild shootouts earlier in the season, but Minshew is banged up now, and they avg. just 3.8 y/carry the last 4 weeks (28th). And with Jonathan Taylor out, they can't finish drives, with just 3 offensive TDs in the last 2 games. Steelers pass rush will be a problem. And we know the Steelers offense is broken even against suspect defenses, scoring 54 total points their last 4 games. Trubisky is terrible and the Steelers lack a creative play caller on offense.