With Deebo Samuel and now Trent Williams out for the 49ers – and Brock Purdy looking shaky before his concussion from which he has miraculously recovered – the Bengals enter this game as the healthier side. In fact, Joe Burrow stated this week he’s near 100% from the calf injury that has plagued him most of the season. Not only that, San Francisco is on short rest after losing consecutive games straight up, while Cincinnati is rested coming off the bye with two weeks to prepare. This game is going to be close one way or another, and I like the Bengals to keep it within the number, but I’ll have a moneyline sprinkle, too.

Wayne Gretzky famously said “don’t skate where the puck is…skate to where it’s going”. Tee Higgins is a great buy low candidate in a game where J Chase will get lots of attention from the 49er D. Over

Tee Higgins has had a disastrous start in what is a contract year for the Bengals WR. Higgins has been plagued by drops, a rib injury, and just has struggled along with the Bengals offense. We're getting a hefty discount on this receiving line and I expect Higgins to return to a full time role after splitting snaps with Trent Irwin prior to the Bengals Week 7 BYE. Higgins practiced in full this week and I think the Bengals will prioritize getting their stud WR involved early and often. Look for Higgins to bounce back today.

I initially hoped to take the 49ers with Sam Darnold once the line got to 3, but then Brock Purdy was cleared to play and the line shot back to previous levels. But the MVP of the offense, left tackle Trent Williams, seems unlikely to play after not practicing all week, and that lowers the upside of the unit against a Bengals defense that is solid against the pass. Cincy won three of their last four games, and we expect Joe Burrow to look better coming out of the bye. This line was Bengals -1 prior to the season, and with injury developments now seeming to favor Cincy, it feels like we're getting a lot of value here.

My model has the Niners winning this one by 9.5-points. San Francisco has lost their last two games which were both on the road, both one score games. Cincinnati has won three of their last four, however I still have their offense ranked 14th and their defense ranked 10th in terms of personal strength. I have the Niners offense ranked 3rd and their defense #1 in football. Now you can see why I have them as a 9.5-point favorite.

I haven't seen enough out of the Bengals defense that they can stop the 49ers offense. Cincinnati has trouble stopping the run, my model has the Niners rushing for over 150 yards which opens up the passing game. Joe Burrow has five touchdowns the past two games and is looking more like himself. The weather will be just perfect.

Number down from 45 but I wanted to wait through more of the week to get a better grasp of the injury situation. And I am comfortable here. I am less than convinced both teams get to 20 in what should be close game. Bengals have just 8 offensive TD (only NYG and NYJ worse) SF scored 17 each of last 2 games and offensive efficiency way down w/o Deebo and Trent Williams. Bengals D will be fresh off the bye, and Bengals offense - outside of a handful of plays against the lowly Cardinals - has lacked quick-strike and explosion. Both teams in top 7 in opposing pass rating. Purdy less spectacular without his full cast around him. Bengals top 10 RZ D

This is more of a bet on the situation than it is on Joe Mixon. What Mixon lacks in efficiency he more than makes up for with elite usage. Mixon's snap share and opportunity share are both in the top 10 percentile at the RB position. He's facing a 49ers run defense that isn't quite as scary as they appear on paper or have been in years past. Coming out of the BYE week, I think Mixon is likely to see 15-17 carries in what should be a competitive game environment and we''ll see a balanced Bengals attack. This number should be 5-7 yards higher.

FanDuel is the only SL book still with 45.5 and the rest at 45 -- it's possible Brock Purdy will not play as he's in the concussion protocol. It would be Sam Darnold if not. I suppose if anyone can turn Darnold into a good QB it's Kyle Shanahan, but we'll play the Under now just in case. That Niners offense hasn't exactly been dominant in the past two games as it is and will be without Deebo Samuel at a minimum again.