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Sun, Oct 158:05 pm UTCAllegiant Stadium
New England
Patriots
NE
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-13
ATS5-11
O/U7-10-0
FINAL SCORE
17
-
21
Las Vegas
Raiders
LV
Last 5 ATS
W/L8-9
ATS10-6
O/U6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
4-13
Win /Loss
8-9
5-11
Spread
10-6
7-10-0
Over / Under
6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
NE @ LV
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
NE @ LV
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OVER / UNDER
NE @ LV
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64%
PUBLIC
36%
MONEY
37%
PUBLIC
63%
MONEY
Over38%
PUBLIC
Under62%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Money LineLas Vegas -146
WIN
Unit0.5
+1096
42-17 in Last 59 NFL ML Picks
+230
4-1 in Last 5 LV ML Picks
Matt's Analysis:

The Raiders have a few big play weapons on both sides of the ball and the Patriots really don't. If Bill Belichick gets destroyed by his Padawan trainee Josh McDaniels, it's time to hang up the hoodie.

Pick Made: Oct 15, 7:32 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing + Receiving YardsRhamondre Stevenson Over 71.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards -119
LOSS
Unit1.0
Josh's Analysis:

Stevenson torched the Raiders for 172 rushing yards in last year's matchup, and this feels like a get-right spot for the top offensive threat on a dreadful club that has scored 3 combined points over the past 2 weeks. The Patriots would be wise to give him a steady workload against a Raiders defense that allowed Packers backup RB A.J. Dillon to rush for 76 yards last week.

Pick Made: Oct 15, 4:18 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Passing YardsMac Jones Under 212.5 Total Passing Yards -137
WIN
Unit0.5
Matt's Analysis:

Awfully low total, but the NFL Network reported today that Jones has a very short leash -- think that was kinda common sense, but we have to lean Under for that reason.

Pick Made: Oct 15, 3:56 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadLas Vegas -2.5 -120
WIN
Unit1.0
+739
47-36-4 in Last 87 NFL ATS Picks
+247
6-3-1 in Last 10 LV ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Any Raiders issues seem relatively minor by comparison to the Patriots' woes, especially as the Maxx Crosby-led defense just put the clamps on the Pack last Monday. Even with ongoing questions regarding the Vegas offense (Why wasn't Davante Adams targeted more often vs. Green Bay? When is Josh Jacobs going to have his breakout game? Why is Josh McDaniels still making strategic blunders?) , New England looks in a lot more trouble at the moment, and not even Belichick's familiarity with McDaniels will likely help the sagging Patriots, now without a TD in ten straight quarters..

Pick Made: Oct 15, 5:15 am UTC on FanDuel
Over / UnderUnder 41.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+492
20-14 in Last 34 NFL O/U Picks
+400
4-0 in Last 4 LV O/U Picks
Kenny's Analysis:

Under 41.5 - Both teams are 4-1 under due to the fact both offenses are very anemic. New England has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this year while the Raiders have yet to score more than 18 points in their first five games. The Patriots have scored just 55 points in their five games, averaging just 11 points per game. This is somewhat of a rivalry between Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels with both needs badly needing the victory. We think both teams’ punters will be on display.

Pick Made: Oct 14, 6:12 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Over / UnderUnder 41.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+917
83-66-3 in Last 152 NFL Picks
+492
17-11 in Last 28 NFL O/U Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Did a double-take upon seeing this total not in the 30s. The Patriots have scored a measly three points in the past two weeks and own up to by far the smallest scoring average in the NFL. Stubborn coach Bill Belichock sticks with Mac Jones. Though the putrid output is not his fault entirely, a change in QBs appears called for. The Pats likely won't find a cure here, what with the Raiders allowing 13 points in the last six periods. Only one of Las Vegas' games has exceeded this number, in large part because the offense has yet to escape the teens in scoring.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 5:45 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDavante Adams Over 68.5 Total Receiving Yards -132
LOSS
Unit1.0
+845.5
74-54 in Last 128 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

Davante Adams has an elite target profile and we're getting him at steep discount after one his worst games he's played since his rookie season. The Raiders have a hyper condensed target distribution and the New England defense is middling without Christian Gonzalez. Look for a big bounce back performance from Adams.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 3:22 am UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadNew England +3 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2450
202-148-2 in Last 352 NFL Picks
+1754
79-55-2 in Last 136 NFL ATS Picks
+418
21-15 in Last 36 NE ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

The Raiders haven't scored more than 18 points in a game and shouldn't be laying a full field goal, even against the seemingly hapless Patriots. New England should get two key offensive linemen back this week in Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu. That will help Mac Jones and the running game. It's extremely hard to back a team that's looked lifeless the past two weeks, but this is a step down in class. New England allows 4.6 yards per play, fifth-fewest, and has played a murderous schedule so far.

Pick Made: Oct 12, 5:34 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadNew England +3 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1895
12-1-1 in Last 14 NFL ATS Picks
Jeff's Analysis:

New England is a professional football team, and they know that being outscored 72-3 in their last two games is unacceptable. I believe the Patriots will have success running the ball against a defense ranked 23rd against the run. Las Vegas will have one less day to prepare for the game. This doesn't bode well, especially since head coach Josh McDaniels has a career record of 19-30, including 7-12 after a win. The Patriots had a franchise-low 3rd down conversion rate of 7.14% against the Saints and failed to enter the red zone. NE owns the better 3rd down defense and has played a much tougher schedule. Belichick is 23-14 straight-up after losing two or more consecutive games, including 6-0 over the last three seasons.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 8:45 pm UTC on DraftKings

Team Injuries

New England Patriots
Friday, Dec 19, 2025
Avatar
LB
Harold Landry
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Robert Spillane
AnkleOut
Avatar
DT
Christian Barmore
KneeQuestionable
Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025
Avatar
CB
Carlton Davis
HipQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Marcus Jones
KneeQuestionable
Las Vegas Raiders
Friday, Dec 19, 2025
Avatar
C
Jordan Meredith
AnkleQuestionable
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