Big fan of what the Cardinals have been able to do so far this season with Josh Dobbs. But without James Conner – and facing an extremely capable offense with an efficient passer in Matthew Stafford for the third straight week – this is going to be an extremely tough test on the road. The Rams’ only struggles this season have been against teams with capable defenses, and that’s not how I would describe the Cards. Not my favorite play of the week, but Arizona has lost five straight road games by an average of 12 points per contest.

The time to back the Rams is the game following a loss. They last absorbed an ATS defeat in this scenario seven games ago, with five covers. Veteran QB Matthew Stafford might be vulnerable against an effective pass rush. Alas, the Cardinals do not own one, with a pressure rate ranked near the league's bottom. On offense, there is a big drop-off at RB from injured starter James Connor (knee). No backup stands out, and the busiest two have combined for just 26 carries.

With Cooper Kupp back healthy, there are substantially fewer targets to go around. Tyler Higbee was especially affected last week in Kupp's return, as Higbee drew just three targets. Fewer targets means fewer chances to make a long reception.

The Cardinals have been a nice story so far, but their overachieving ways might have hit an expiration date. They are banged up on both sides of the ball and a defense that yielded 317 yards and 3TDs to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week will likely give up similar production to the pass-heavy Rams.

Under 48.5 at FanDuel - My model has this total at 44. This is a divisional game with teams teams under .500 which makes this game a must win. Cardinal QB Joshua Dobbs has done a nice job for the Cardinals but the have a median points per game of 20. The Rams have gone under in two of their last three games while posting a median score of 23 points per game. I'd love to have a 23-20 final. Cheers! or Chicken Dinner!

I faded Arizona's weak secondary last Sunday and easily hit Joe Burrow's passing yardage prop. So let's go back to that same strategy again, despite Matthew Stafford's being 30 yards higher. The Cardinals gave up 15 catches to Ja'Marr Chase even without a decent #2 WR taking the coverage away from him at times. Now I expect Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to feast. Stafford already has three 300+ yard games this season, I'd be surprised if this isn't his fourth.

We've played Williams often this season and he usually cashes. We didn't play him last week vs. the Eagles as I expected points to be tough to come by and LA wanting to get Cooper Kupp a TD in his return. That didn't happen but he was busy (Williams didn't score). Arizona is in the bottom third of the NFL against the run and has surrendered seven rushing TDs. Unless he's hurt or resting, Williams will get the ball at the goal line. He also is more than capable of a short receiving TD. I don't expect points to be that hard to come by Sunday for LA.

The Cardinals have played really well to this point much to almost everyone's surprise. However I would argue they've played well above expectations and are a serious regression candidate. We also saw what the Cardinals offense looked like once James Conner went down they basically cratered. I'll take the Rams team with a healthy Cooper Kupp coming off of a loss.