Jonathan Taylor is back for Indianapolis. It may take some time for Taylor to get back in the groove, so they could use him as a decoy to follow Anthony Richardson to find success through the air. The Titans had a good offensive showing last week against Cincinnati but are still going averaging 18 points per game. Indianapolis will get an extra boost with Taylor back with the team.

While Anthony Richardson has made highlight plays for the colts, his inefficiency remains an issue. However, the return of Jonathan Taylor – particularly if the Colts decided to run two-backs sets – could ease some of the rookie’s burden. Indianapolis is third in the NFL in sacks going up against a poor Tennessee offensive line that is struggling to protect Ryan Tannehill. Even if Taylor only gets 40% of the carries, his electricity adds a key element to the offense. I like the Colts to win this outright and will sprinkle on the moneyline. Don't see them getting the full 3 points before kickoff, though.

Under 43.5 - We have two teams that are on both ends of the pace chart. Tennessee takes the most time inbetween plays of anyone in the NFL and Indy is the fastest team. My model ranks both offenses below average and both defenses above average. Projected final score: rounding up Indianapolis 19-18.

Hopkins crushed this number last week as the Titans tried to get him into the end zone. Ryan Tannehill has been a problem, but that's because his offensive line has been a sieve. The Titans should be better there this week with two starters returning, plus the Colts not only might be without rusher Kwity Paye but have been fifth-worst in pass rush pressure rate and seventh-worst in blitz rate. AND the Colts' most decent outside cornerback, Dallis Flowers, tore his Achilles and won't play again this season, so there's a chance they'll have two rookies starting at outside cornerback. That should be cake for Hopkins. Shop around here -- I'd pay less juice to take this at 57.5 or fewer yards.

Henry has dominated the Colts in his career with seven 100-yard games and 253 carries for 1,287 yards and seven scores all time against Indy. The Colts aren't stopping the run well this year (126.8 ypg). I may come back and play Henry for an anytime TD.

In the first three games of 2023, Pittman saw double-digit targets and caught at least eight passes in each. Then last week's one catch for five yards happened. Tennessee has given up 59+ receiving yards to seven receivers already this season (in only four games), and considering the Colts top wideout is getting 1/3 of the team's first read share, another double-digit target, 60+ yard game seems probable for Pittman.

The Titans were a dog in this game until recently but they're still the tougher and better team. Give me Tennessee and Mike Vrabel with an underdog mentality -- even if the Titans aren't an actual underdog -- all day long, especially in a divisional matchup.

The Titans are getting reinforcements along their offensive line, with first-round pick Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere returning to practice in a full capacity. While Tennessee's pass defense remains vulnerable and Anthony Richardson definitely will hit some explosive plays, Ryan Tannehill should keep up versus a banged-up Colts secondary. Indy lost starting corner Dallis Flowers to a torn Achilles last week. Rookies Jaylon Jones and JuJu Brents are expected to start Sunday.