Waited as long as I could to see if DraftKings would get to 3.5. Guess not. This likely will be such an ugly slog that it's decided by a field goal. True, the Jets have Zach Wilson but they also have the better roster overall and are home.

This game will probably be just as ugly as its meager total suggests. But considering New England's dominance of this rivalry, with 14 consecutive victories, and Zach Wilson under center for the Jets, look for the Patriots to find a way to make it 15 straight.

Inevitable, almost, for Bill Belichick to beat the Jets, which he has now done 14 times in a row. Not worrying about Aaron Rodgers this week, Belichick now faces an offense that he has schemed into oblivion in recent years, with the last six of those 14 straight series win after Tom Brady left town. Mac Jones continues to seek some traction, but against this foe, simply having Belichick around means the Patriots don’t have to do much damage to come out ahead (last November it was a last-second punt return TD that proved the difference in a 10-3 win).

Having a nice little NFL run thanks in part to Wilson actually throwing a TD pass in the blowout loss to Dallas. I already played Under this game total Sunday because, well, Wilson but also because the weather looks frightful -- and, yes, I heard my first Christmas song this week; sigh -- due to that tropical system. Wilson hasn't even topped 80 passing yards in two of four career starts vs. the Pats. Half unit.

Can't believe I'm leaning Under a total of 37, but two other SL experts already did and they didn't mention the weather, which looks to be potentially ugly with that tropical system as of now scheduled to hit the Northeast on Sunday. It's not a hurricane but it may rain a lot. So let's throw a half unit down. Can't justify more at such a low number (down to 36.5 at some books already).

Love giving 2.5 points, especially with history on your side. Bill Belichick and New England last lost to the Jets straight-up 15 games ago. Four games involved New York QB Zach Wilson. His numbers are horrific, notably a completion rate of barely above 50 percent. Coach Hoodie might be slipping but should be able to dip into his vast store of defensive knowledge to limit the Jets to 14 points. The Patriots' two defeats came by one score against Super Bowl contenders. Besides, it's almost unfathomable to imagine the Pats at -3.

Neither the Patriots nor the Jets is a high-scoring offense, which is quite clearly reflected by this game's minuscule total. But I think both offenses will be even more conservative than usual in this game because of how good the teams' respective defenses are. A defensive score could easily decide this game and no one is going to want to take chances. I think we'll need multiple defensive scores or random jailbreaks for this game to go over 28 points honestly.

The total is very low for a great reason. Two below average NFL quarterbacks, one top five defense (NY Jets) and one coach (Belichick) that always has a solid defensive game plan. My model has this total at 32.5.

New England is 25-28 SU the past 3+ years without Tom Brady. Even without Aaron Rodgers I think the Jets have the better roster. The QB comparison is dead even but the rest of the units I have the Jets with a slight advantage. Jets defense is the biggest advantage in the game. I'll take the home dog with the better defense. Jets+2.5

The Jets offense looked unimpressive for a second straight week, but you can blame the opponent for that. With the Cowboys completely shutting down the run game, Zach Wilson had no chance for success. But the Pats just surrendered 6.7 yards per rush to Raheem Mostert, so I believe the Jets offense is capable of having a solid day. I wouldn't say the same for the Pats offense, with Mac Jones taking a step back after a solid showing against the Eagles and now facing a dangerous Jets defense. With title hopes expunged, ending the Patriots' win streak against them is the Jets' Super Bowl, and they'll show up for this spot.