Las Vegas has an abysmal defense. I trust new Broncos coach Sean Payton. Denver is the better team and is at home. Lay the three points.

At a flat -3, there's value on a Broncos club that should take a step forward from last year's disaster under new coach Sean Payton against a Raiders club that could easily see some regression.

This has dropped to -3 at one of our books so I'll take it -- RJ projects Denver as nearly a 7-point home favorite. Guess we find out how good of a coach Sean Payton is (he clearly thinks he's Bill Belichick/Joe McCarthy/Phil Jackson/Scotty Bowman rolled into one) in regards to fixing Russell Wilson. Most reports have been good, and top RB Javonte Williams is good to go off his torn ACL. The Raiders seem a bit dysfunctional right now -- Josh McDaniels is not the 2024 coach in my opinion -- with this whole Chandler Jones mess and obviously are breaking in QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Half unit as I'm only playing this for the number not the actual team. We may well push.

The Broncos ultimately will be much better under Sean Payton, but in Week 1 it will be difficult to cover this spread with a depleted receiving corps. The Raiders have won the last six meetings, and their offensive weapons are clearly superior. I have big concerns about Vegas' defense, but I don't think Russell Wilson is going to rediscover his Pro Bowl form right away.

The Broncos are unlikely to have Jerry Jeudy for this game, while Javonte Williams will be less than 100%. But just like with the Giants and Jaguars last year, it's impossible to overstate the coaching upgrade in Denver with Sean Payton calling the shots. He'll be able to put up points against this questionable Vegas defense, and the Broncos have plenty of talent on that side of the ball to hold the Raiders offense in check. Throw in Denver's outsized home-field advantage early in the year, and this line should be closer to 7 rather than trending down. Get the value at -3.5 while you can.