We have a win-and-you’re-in scenario with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home in Lambeau Field. We have Jared Goff in a cold-weather game outdoors on the road in primetime. And we have a reasonable spread despite Green Bay having won and covered four straight overall. It is also 3-1 ATS at home since Nov. 13, and Rodgers will have both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones active. Detroit may be eliminated by kickoff, and while this team has worked hard for Dan Campbell all season, missing the playoffs before the coin toss would make it a tough motivational scenario.

Detroit can't earn a playoff spot with Seattle's OT win over the Rams. I don't care whatsoever about the spread here -- just don't see Aaron Rodgers losing at home with a playoff spot on the line, although I will happily take a loss on this wager if the Packers get punked. That and the Bears getting the No. 1 overall pick would almost make this entire NFL season worth it. Now, Rodgers losing at home in the actual playoffs? That's another story entirely because he's good at that. A-Rod is 3-0 in his career in regular-season finales with a chance to clinch: 2016 at the Lions, 2013 at the Bears, 2010 vs. the Bears. Lions QB Jared Goff is 1-2 in his career playing outdoor games in freezing temps with a lousy rating of 62.6.

The Green Bay Packers have everything on the line tonight at home against the Lions...and Detroit might as well, but I'm keeping this one simple. Regardless of what happens between the Rams and Seahawks (Lions need the Seahawks to lose), I trust Green Bay more here. Aaron Rodgers is lethal at home in the regular season in the months of December and January...and this one has extra juice included too. Whether the Lions have the postseason possible or not they'll give you maximum effort regardless, but should that possibility not be available the Packers should pull away late and put this thing to bed.

The Lions will give supreme effort even if they're eliminated from playoff contention via a Seattle win. Detroit enters with the hotter offense, and its defense should get a lift from the return of veteran safety DeShon Elliott (91 tackles, INT, forced fumble). His absence was a key factor in the team's Week 16 defeat in Carolina -- Detroit's only ATS loss in the past seven weeks. Grab the points.

The Lions and Packers close out Week 18 with a game that may only matter to one of them, depending on whether the Seahawks win or lose earlier in the day. Even giving Dan Campbell credit for being a master motivator, it's tough to ask players who were just eliminated from the playoffs to give 100%. But even if they can't make the playoffs, the Lions finishing 9-8 would be a massive achievement after being one of the league's worst teams the last few years. I think these teams are even in talent but can see Detroit winning the battle of the trenches and keeping this game close. If the Seahawks win, you might be able to get a great price on Detroit before kickoff.