The Chargers enter with their full complement of playmakers for the third straight game. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back, they are averaging nearly 0.7 yard per play better than prior, and Austin Ekeler has benefitted from their return as well. The Colts start their third QB of the season in Nick Foles, and while he may potentially be a step up, he still must operate behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league from a protection standpoint. Conversely, Justin Herbert should have plenty of time to deliver the ball. While Los Angeles has only won three games by exceeding this margin, it has far more firepower and a defense that appears to be improving with Derwin James active. Plus, it’s 5-2 ATS on the road.

I mentioned in my spread pick that the Bolts get All-Pro safety Derwin James back from injury and that should only make it harder for Nick Foles to put up big passing yardage tonight. He'll probably be dumping the ball off left and right, and there's always the possibility of injury as Foles isn't exactly all that mobile to avoid the pass rush. The SL Model has Foles with just 212 passing yards.

If motivation matters, this should be a Chargers blowout as they can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while the Colts are playing out the string with a lame-duck interim coach (at least I assume Jeff Saturday won't get the full-time gig) and lame-duck quarterback (Nick Foles). LA also gets back arguably its best all-around defender from injury in safety Derwin James.

Austin Ekeler has gained at least 36 receiving yards in 10 of 14 games, and on Monday Night Football he faces a Colts defense that ranks dead last in allowing targets to running backs. Ekeler has drawn 32 targets over his past four games. Go Over 35.5 receiving yards at -135.

The Chargers have proven almost incapable of winning a game by more than around a field goal, and even with Jonathan Taylor out and Nick Foles starting, I don't think that changes on Monday night. Indy's defense is 11th in DVOA, while pretty much anyone can run on the Chargers defense (a whopping 5.4 yards per carry allowed), which should mean another close game. The wild card is Foles, who has barely played in two seasons, but he shouldn't have to do much heavy lifting. Grab the points.

The Chargers seem to be back on track with their receiving corps healthy and their defense coming off two quality games. But this is still a team that cannot blow out opponents, only winning one game all year by more than six points, and that came back in Week 4 against the awful Texans. Even without Jonathan Taylor, the Colts should still be able to win on the ground against this bad rush defense that allowed Derrick Henry to get to 163 total yards despite Ryan Tannehill's limitations. The Chargers should do enough to win this game, but if they stick to their normal routine it'll only be by a few points.

It's understandable that the Colts have shaken things up after the debacle at Minnesota, but the QB move from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles seems a slight downgrade. Foles has started once in the past two seasons. Further, he won't have injured RB Jonathan Taylor to lean on. Indy should be grateful to get two extra days to recover from the collapse for the ages. It might not be enough against the rolling Chargers, whose restored health corresponds with their improved play. L.A. is 4-3 straight-up on the road.