Not a team that normally finds itself on my docket, the Browns are in a solid spot at home in windy conditions against a team facing devastating injury issues. While expectations are this will be a run-based game -- and it will be, giving the Browns an edge with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson -- we've seen before that teams will still try and throw in such situations. The Saints have almost no one to receive the ball, and they are a dome team playing in nearly impossible conditions. Alvin Kamara will get a heavy workload, but the Browns should be able to focus on stopping him. The hook is about to come on this line, so jump in now if interested.

RB Nick Chubb's availability makes all the difference in the universe for the Browns. With high winds and temperatures in the low teens in the forecast, the ground game's importance is heightened. Look for Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson, who remains rusty since his return, to hand off all day to Chubb, who was not cleared until Thursday after missing two practices and ranks fourth for most NFL carries. The Saints cannot match the Browns' rushing attack, and their foremost pass-catcher, WR Chris Olive, is a scratch.

The forecast calls for 8-degree temperatures and 27-mph winds. The Browns will handle that better than a dome team, and they get a huge boost with the expected return of center Ethan Pocic. The injury report is worse for the Saints, who won't have their top two receivers. Look for Cleveland's ground game, plus Deshaun Watson's mobility, to be the difference in a low-scoring affair. With this line on Caesars at a field goal, I'll play the Browns on the moneyline at -155..

I meant to pick this earlier at -2.5 and thought I did, but guess I forgot to hit the button. Now it's -3. Oh well. Nick Chubb practiced today and I expect a big game against a Saints defense that has struggled against the run. Neither QB probably will be able to throw much in mega-windy conditions, but Andy Dalton will be without Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Chris Olave. No receptions props yet for Saints RB Alvin Kamara, but I'll surely be going over that.

With about 48 hours left until kickoff, it appears the extremely windy conditions are going to hold. The direction of the wind (parallel with stadium) has likely caused this total to tick up, but we had similar conditions for the awful Patriots-Bills wind game in 2021 and those teams combined for less than 500 yards in a 14-10 final. The Patriots abandoned the pass entirely there, and I don't know that either of these QBs should deviate from that plan. With how these two offenses have played lately, they might not have made it to 33 points in perfect weather; the Saints average 10.6 points outdoors, while the Browns offense has two TDs in three games with Deshaun Watson.

This game is on track to be played in ugly conditions where running the ball is paramount, which seems to favor Cleveland. But the Browns' rush defense has been awful, and Nick Chubb is managing a foot injury. On the other side, the Saints are an indoor team that has struggled on the road this season, but they could be perfectly situated to handle this weather with Taysom Hill serving as a dual threat QB several times per game this season. I expect a heavy dose of Hill here and the Saints offense to not completely fall apart in the extreme conditions. There's a better chance of this game landing on 1 or 2 with the kicking game restricted as well, so I'll take the points in an extremely low-scoring game.