The Texans are getting a lot of love coming off a pair of hard-fought losses over the last two weeks. Prior to that, this team was getting blown out on a weekly basis. Perhaps the 17-10 decision against Tennessee is factoring in here given the Titans are far more injured yet favored by twice as many points (3) as they were in that game (1.5). Derrick Henry should have a field day both on the ground and through the air catching dump-off passes. Even depleted, I don’t see the Titans defense giving up much to these Texans, especially with Dameon Pierce out for the season. Do not take this if the hook comes in.

We won this last week at same number, and I love this way more with Malik Willis at QB. Screen-Play Central. Nothing else to say. I am on under Henry rushing yards.

Look, RJ and Larry are better at the NFL than I am. That's their focus. But I'm a bit surprised they would do -3. I will not speak for them but betting on 3 is not wise from an obvious push perspective. They probably personally bought the hook in either direction. I do think Titans win here even as injured as they are. Nothing to do with them. The Texans are that bad.

The Titans host the Texans Saturday and to be honest, the only player you might recognize is Derrick Henry. Tennessee is on pace to set the NFL injury record for the second season in a row, that including QB Ryan Tannehill. Malik Willis gets the nod and, if you haven't seen how the Titans protect him, they don't exactly let him fire it deep very often. Long story short this will be a Derrick Henry game, but look at the last six weeks for the Titans. Henry has been used in the short passing game due to an offensive line hanging by a thread. In fact, in those last six Henry has 16 receptions for over 200+ yards. We've been hitting this pick over and over so let's play it until they tell us not to...and this is a must win for Tennessee, so if it's been working why would they stop doing it.

This might be the highest rushing total I've ever seen on a prop and will try and find out from the books if that's true. Mike Barner picked this at 109.5, and it's already up to 111.5. Look, I know that Henry has absolutely massacred the Texans of late with four straight 200-yard games against them (NFL record). Also know that it's going to be very cold in Nashville and that Malik Willis is at QB, which means the Titans may resemble Army/Navy/Air Force (Marines? Coast Guard?) in terms of their run/pass ratio. But I have to take under here. It's not that easy to run for 110 yards against an NFL defense, and while Houston is god awful and last against the run, why wouldn't Lovie Smith just put nine guys in the box and dare Willis to do something through the air? There's always the injury/blowout factor as well.

The Texans are a match made in heaven for Henry. When he faced them in Week 8, he rushed 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Going back even further, he has at least 200 rushing yards in each of his last four games against them. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game in the league, so look for Henry to use a heavy workload with Ryan Tannehill (ankle) out to hit the over.

This line has dropped to Titans -3 with Malik Willis in line to start, but his presence doesn't mean Tennessee is doomed against the Texans. In fact, his first start of the year came in Houston, and the Titans won by seven points despite posting just 40 net passing yards. Expect Derrick Henry to run wild again here, and the Texans offense to struggle even against a beat-up Titans defense. Houston was outgained in yardage 502-219 last week, so it had the look of a blowout despite the score. The Texans will struggle to score against a Mike Vrabel team that desperately needs a win, and the Titans run game will do enough to cover.

The Texans nearly upset Super Bowl contenders the past two weeks. Instead, they're saddled with a nine-game losing streak. Against the Cowboys in Week 14, Houston benefitted from three turnovers and Dameon Pierce was a big part of the offense. Now he's done for the season. Against the Chiefs, Houston gained 3.8 yards per carry, In other words, the near-upsets were fluky. Tennessee has already beaten the Texans by a touchdown with Malik Willis s at quarterback. At home in a must-win spot, the Titans should run the ball effectively, snap their own four-game skid and cover.