This number has crashed with plenty of love coming in for the Jaguars coming off last week’s performance while doubt has crept in on the Cowboys, which struggled to beat the short-handed, terrible Texans. The hope was it would tick even further down to -3.5 for the Dallas, but I’m still comfortable enough at -4 despite it being a road spot. We have already seen the Cowboys bounce back from a poor performance with a demolition of the Vikings, and Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS streak as a road favorite since the start of 2021.

Dallas has been good against the run the past two weeks but those were against very limited offenses in Houston and Indianapolis. Overall, the Cowboys have struggled against the run, so I think Travis Etienne will have a nice day -- the SportsLine Projection Model has him with about 70 yards despite not coming close to that number in the past three games. He also hasn't gotten the ball as much as he should. Expect 20 carries at least today.

Engram is coming off an 162 yard performance where he caught 11 receptions and scored two touchdowns. One of the best games by a Tight End this season but I am fading him after his blow up performance. For starters he had only eclipsed this line in five of thirteen appearances this season. He is also facing a Cowboys pass defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards this season to opposing Tight Ends. Dallas boasts arguably the best pass defense in the NFL and Engram was averaging 32 receiving yards prior to last weeks eruption. I love to fade these spots.

Trevor Lawrence threw 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last five games as Jacksonville went 3-2 to keep its AFC South hopes alive. He'll face a Cowboys team that just lost elite right tackle Terence Steele to a season-ending knee injury and struggled to beat the lowly Texans. Dallas won't be able to run wild against a Jaguars defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry. With the Cowboys in a potential lookahead spot to their Christmas eve showdown with the Eagles, I'll take the points.

The Jaguars return home with a lot of confidence after beating Tennessee last week. The Cowboys will be without OT Terence Steele, who has allowed just one sack in 818 snaps this season. Dallas has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and it is 0-2 straight-up and against the spread on grass this season. This slows down its defense, which has a "nicked-up" secondary. Trevor Lawrence has a higher QBR (56.6) than Dak Prescott (52.4). I like Jacksonville and the points.