Both teams have been cover kings this year with the Lions on a 5-0 ATS streak and the Vikings sitting at 5-1-1 ATS across their last seven with the lone loss coming to the Cowboys. As many others have, I maintain that Minnesota is a fraudulent 10-2 team. However, sharp action has swung this line and made it an underdog. Detroit is playing its best ball in years, and its offense is rolling, but it has accomplished much of that against weaker teams. The Vikings offense put up 60 combined points against the Jets and Patriots defenses the last two weeks, and now it gets a unit that – over the season – is giving up an NFL-worst 402.2 yards and 27.0 points per game. I was on both Minnesota losses this season but don’t see it happening again in this spot. I’d have loved the field goal, but Minny should win outright, so this is a decent-enough cushion.

Minnesota is again without its best offensive lineman in Christian Darrisaw and six-time Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith is also out in a minor surprise. That Detroit offense is shockingly unstoppable all of a sudden. The Vikings might be the biggest frauds in the NFL with all those one-score wins. That has to catch up to them eventually. Minnesota should have lost to the Lions earlier this season.

Laying points with a sub-.500 team against one that's 10-2? It doesn’t sound wise, but there’s a good reason this line is where it is. Over the last seven weeks, the Lions rank seventh in overall DVOA. They’re only 5-7, but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far by a mile. All seven of Detroit’s losses were against teams currently above .500, as were two of their wins. The Vikings have the lowest DVOA (21st) for a 10-2 team in NFL history, per Football Outsiders. The Vikings trailed by 10 points after three quarters the first time these teams played, and I think it'll happen again, but without the comeback. Lay the points.

A standing-room-only crowd will be at Ford Field for this important game, and I like the Lions to avenge their heartbreaking loss in Minnesota. In that Week 3 matchup, the Lions scored 24 points, failed to convert two 4th-and-1 plays and missed two field goals. All of Jared Goff's key weapons are healthy. Detroit's defense also is playing much better since Dan Campbell fired secondary coach Aubrey Pleasant due to defensive backs free-lancing in coverage. In the five games since, the Lions have seven interceptions. Take Detroit on the money-line.

The Lions' 40-14 win at home over the Jaguars officially signals them as an above average team. At least, that's what the market is telling us, after this line swung from MIN -2.5 on the lookahead to DET -2.5 as of Tuesday. The Vikings won and covered but the stats behind the scoreboard were again unimpressive, though going from facing the Jets defense to the Lions is a dramatic shift in matchup strength, even with the Detroit D coming off its best game of the year. The Vikings' two losses have come against two of the best defenses in the league, and I think they can win here. I don't expect this to get to 3 so I'm locking in now, but I understand those who decide to wait.