In what is basically a pick 'em, the Steelers are the more talented and historically trustworthy team playing better football entering this game. Quarterback Kenny Pickett is beginning to make strides with George Pickens emerging as his leading receiver, and even Najee Harris has stepped his game up as of late. Plus, TJ Watt is active and sack hungry after not being as successful as he'd like since returning. You also have to like Mike Tomlin in the head-to-head coaching matchup. The line is right, and Pittsburgh is the right side.

It’s evident that the Falcons have missed out on several golden opportunities to win close games. They may have five victories, but they are beginning to look like a team that may stumble as we enter December. This also is the point in time where the coaching staff may want to assess rookie QB Desmond Ridder. This very well could be Marcus Mariota’s last chance to show his value for next season. Look for that pressure to be too much as the Steelers prevail.

The Steelers might be slightly ahead of schedule in their rebuilding game, but this is still a fairly limited team. The memory is fresh of Monday night's win over a flawed Colts club, but now they play an Atlanta team that should be in a high motivation spot. The Falcons have dropped three of four, but their losses to the Chargers and Commanders were just a play or two away from a different outcome. Atlanta has value at the pick'em price.

Since Week 6, the Falcons have two wins -- an overtime victory over the lowly Panthers and another three-point win over the defenseless Bears. Now they host a rejuvenated Steelers outfit that should have difference-maker T.J. Watt, who practiced on a limited basis despite his rib injury. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in yards-per-carry allowed at 4.0, a benefit when facing Atlanta's run-heavy approach. Since the Steelers' bye, rookie Kenny Pickett has gone three straight games without a turnover. He and George Pickens are developing chemistry and should connect often on the fast track in Atlanta. Back Pittsburgh.

The Falcons nearly stole a win from Washington last week before an end-zone interception ended their chances, but it was encouraging to see them average 6 yards per play against a quality defense without Kyle Pitts. They'll give the Steelers a better fight than the Colts offense did, and I'm not sure how well the Pittsburgh offense takes advantage of the deficiencies of the Atlanta rush defense when their top RBs are banged up. The Falcons haven't had a great homefield advantage in recent years but are 4-2 in Atlanta this year, so maybe that's changing. With Pittsburgh on a short week, I think this is a great spot for the Falcons.