Despite the outlier last week in a unique situation, we largely know what the Colts are about -- even with Matt Ryan under center. The Eagles, meanwhile, saw a bit of regression at the hands of the Commanders, eating a stunning 11-point defeat. This line has come down four points over the last week, opening some value with Philadelphia under a touchdown in a bounce back spot. The change to Ryan won’t be as valuable against the Eagles’ top-ranked pass defense DVOA as it was against the lowly Raiders. Plus, the Colts struggle to stop the run at home, which is Philly's bread and butter. Even in a road spot coming off a loss, give me the better team, the better quarterback (these days) and the better defense.

The unexpected results from last weekend, Indy over Las Vegas and Washington over Philly, sent the look-ahead line plummeting from 11. Value is plentiful on the Eagles, who figure to bounce back from their first straight-up defeat. Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday surprised the Raiders by reinserting QB Matt Ryan at QB. The Eagles will be ready for the veteran. After three consecutive games as double-digit favorites, Philly giving under a touchdown against a so-so opponent is a value.

I'll bite. A phenomenal job by Jeff Saturday stepping in as coach of the Colts and immediately going on the road and beating Las Vegas. That said, while Indy did play better, they still tried to give that game away and Josh McDaniels is in way over his head with the Raiders. Always good to follow the interim coach in his first week, energy is high, but the second week is when you realize the problems still exist. Couple that with an Eagles team who just had its worst game of the season in a loss at home to Washington. Philly made almost every mistake possible, it's not happening again. Love it even more it's a short week and a road game for the Eagles, no time to think on the loss, this is a business trip. Period. That field in Indy is a fast track, just what Jalen Hurts wants. Blood in the water game.

Jeff Saturday has fixed the Colts, at least based on one week. But that win came against the defense with the lowest sack rate in the league, so no wonder Matt Ryan looked like a changed man. The Colts get an upgrade with Ryan at QB, but I expect them to go back to looking awful against an elite Eagles pass defense that should throttle the Indy O-line. The Colts have a pretty good defense too, but Philly's pass game is one of the league's best in yards per play, and they should have plenty of success in this matchup. The lookahead was Eagles -10.5, and the size of this line move is giving the Colts too much credit for taking advantage of a great matchup last week.