The Browns defensive line is back healthy just in time to cause chaos for the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, who will be without leading receiver Kennan Allen for the fourth straight game going against a pass defense that is starting to come into its own. Los Angeles is going to have an exceedingly tough time stopping Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. There’s a good possibility Cleveland wins this outright, but despite getting the worst number of the week, it’s always worth holding a point or two against a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber. Look for the Browns to control the line of scrimmage and do their best to keep the ball out of the Chargers’ hands.

The Chargers showed last week against Houston that they still lack the ability to play four complete quarters. They let a comfortable double-digit lead shrink to three points with poor defense and a special-teams miscue. However, the Browns are a good matchup for them, and I expect the Chargers to clean up the sloppiness from the second half against the Texans. Expect Los Angeles to win its second straight on the road.

My model has the Browns covering 57 percent of the time, but the value is on the money line, with Cleveland winning in 54 percent of simulations at plus money. The L.A. run defense is atrocious, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will find gaping holes. Cleveland averages 187 rushing yards per game (second in NFL), while L.A. barely tries to run the ball. The Chargers average 64.5 yards per game and 2.7 per carry, both last in the league. The Browns defense will be better than it was last week, as Myles Garrett is expected to be back. He will harass injured Chargers QB Justin Herbert all day.

The Chargers are giving up 5.4 yards per carry, second-worst in the NFL. That doesn't bode well versus the Browns' elite ground game. Cleveland was shredded defensively by the Falcons, but the Browns are expected to get back Myles Garrett and Taven Bryan -- two starting defensive linemen -- this week. I missed the best of the number but I'll still back Cleveland to at least keep this close if not win outright.

The Browns return home off a loss at Atlanta, despite out-gaining the Falcons 403-333. Nick Chubb and company should have a field day against this Chargers' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line is ranked No. 30 at Football Outsiders, while the Browns are ranked No. 7 so far this season. Cleveland owns the much better special teams unit. It's the second straight road game for the Chargers after playing indoors last week. Strong angle. This week playing at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) against a physical team seems like a tough spot. Take the Browns!

The Browns have taken a lead into the fourth quarter of all four games but enter this one at 2-2 after failing to stop the Falcons rush offense. The good news for them is that the Chargers are 32nd in yards per rush (2.74) despite Austin Ekeler coming off a big all-around game against the Texans. The Chargers defense is 31st in yards per rush and facing an offense with 170-plus yards on the ground in every game. The matchups favor Cleveland here, especially if they can get back one or both of their starting DEs to face a Rashawn Slater-less O-line (granted, his rookie replacement played well). In a bad travel spot for L.A. with value off lookahead, the Browns are the play.