Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
Although Justin Herbert no longer carries an injury designation, he's still clearly not at full strength and the same can be said of pretty much the whole Los Angeles club. The Chargers continue to be hampered by injuries to their receivers and offensive line and also lost Joey Bosa to a groin injury. This is just too many points to give against a Houston club that essentially knocked Los Angeles out of the playoffs last year with an upset at home.
The Chargers continue to be unable to shake the year-after-year label of being inconsistent. Now, they’re plagued with a combination of injuries that could derail their season. In Week 4, though, they're in a beneficial spot against the Texans. Houston plays a conservative style that allowed Indianapolis and Denver to overcome deficits. Expect the Chargers to take out their frustrations on the Texans.
At full strength, L.A. might be justified as a double-digit favorite. But the cupboard has been thinned out by a wave of injuries and could be half-bare come gametime. Out for sure: DE Joey Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater and WR Keenan Allen. Questionable: C Corey Linsley and TE Donald Parham Jr. These guys are cornerstones of the team. QB Justin Herbert will answer the bell, but ailing ribs compromise his effectiveness. Houston's defense is haunting; its opponents' pass completion rate (55.1%) is the league's second best while its sacks total is fifth most. The Chargers have whiffed three times under coach Brandon Staley as away favorites.
The Texans have played three close games and I think they'll do it again when they host the banged-up Chargers. Rashawn Slater, one of the game's best left tackles, ruptured his biceps tendon Sunday while wideout Jalen Guyton tore his ACL. Edge rusher Joey Bosa left the loss to Jacksonville with a groin injury. Center Cory Linsley (knee), corner JC Jackson (ankle) and wideout Keenan Allen (hamstring) missed Week 3 altogether. It looks like Allen might return vs. Houston, but QB Justin Herbert, continues to be hampered by a significant rib injury. Late last season, the Chargers closed as 13.5-point favorites in Houston and lost 41-29. In that game, Davis Mills hit 21 of 27 throws for 254 yards and two TDs with no INTs. It was part of a pattern in which Mills plays much better at home (14 TDs, 1 INT) than on the road (5 TDs, 11 INTs). Take the points.
While Justin Herbert made some great throws last week, he certainly didn't look like himself in the loss to the Jaguars. And I worry this Chargers offense won't look like itself anytime soon with the injuries to the O-line. They couldn't run the ball at all against the Jaguars, and I'm not confident they'll just be able to turn it on against a bad Houston rush defense. The Houston offense is 31st in yards per play and after I praised Davis Mills last week for keeping them in games by avoiding mistakes, he threw a decisive interception to lose to an awful Bears team. This has the makings of an ugly, low-scoring affair.