The Jets shot down Baltimore's running game last week and were solid overall before allowing a couple of big plays. They were also inept on offense. The Browns similarly kept Carolina in check most of the way but couldn't do much on offense when their run game was slowed. This is a low total but it's tough to envision these clubs soaring past it.

New York's stockpile of injuries on both sides of the football made the team look like the same old Jets in Week 1. Offensively, it will be a challenge to muster much with Joe Flacco leading the aerial attack, but I think they can work on establishing the ground game against the Browns. This spread is a bit too high, even against Cleveland's stout rushing attack. Take the Jets and the points.

It’s hardly Joe Flacco’s fault that the Jets’ offense is punchless. It’s just that the graying QB, filling in for the injured Zach Wilson, cannot create plays at the helm of a mediocre unit. Cleveland could top its sack total of four from a week ago. The Browns tend to handle visiting underdogs, covering six of the last eight times, and QB Jacoby Brissett wins ATS more often than not as a favorite. The Jets have not covered in a September game since 2019.

I backed the Browns +2.5 against the Panthers last week in a game that was never outside the number if you got it at the right time. But the Cleveland offense didn't impress despite their final point total, and the defense outright collapsed in the second half. I've said the Browns can beat bad teams with a run-and-D approach, and the Jets sure look like a bad team. But their defense did an excellent job against the Ravens, particularly defending the run, and I can see them keeping the Browns' point total down in this game. Jacoby Brissett is one of the worst starting QBs in the league, so I love catching nearly a TD by fading him.

SL's Stephen Oh tweeted he thinks the Browns are good value at -6.5 but not 7 and I tend to agree so let's take it now -- again, I won't be doing many games this early unless I think they are going to cross a number I don't like. And I wouldn't like this at -7. Simply don't think the Jets are very good. Not exactly breaking news there.