Mike Tomlin is 14-3-2 ATS as an home underdog, yet the Steelers are 0-4 when TJ Watt misses a game. Something has got to give. While Bill Belichick historically has been a master at such toss-up games, the Patriots will not test the Steelers with their defense as much as the Bengals did last week. Pittsburgh should be able to complete some throws to stretch the field and open up rushing lanes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. New England's offense looks rough, Mac Jones is dealing with a bad back that could act up at any time, and Pittsburgh has a strong enough secondary to take advantage of any miscues. I would not touch this under a field goal, but there's some good value here with the Steelers at home.

Pittsburgh is a take at this number, Not sure what New England did last week to merit being a favorite in this matchup. Even with the loss of T.J. Watt and a potentially limited Najee Harris, the Steelers have a few more options offensively and the run-heavy Patriots are a little easier to prepare for on defense.

I am so tempted to wait to see if this gets to +3.5 (and totally recommend) but should any team with Matt Patricia having any responsibility whatsoever be giving 3 on the road? I don't care if TJ Watt or TJ Maxx is out.

The Steelers are coming off a surprise win over the Bengals to face a Patriots team that hasn't started 0-2 since 2001. Pittsburgh's win was due in large part to Cincinnati's five turnovers, as the Steelers only managed 172 yards of offense in regulation. The Patriots had three turnovers themselves in Week 1, but we should expect both teams to regress to the mean here. The New England offensive line will benefit from not having to face T.J. Watt, and the Patriots defense played well aside from fourth-down play that took them off-guard and resulted in a Jaylen Waddle TD just before halftime. Most of the matchups in this game seem to favor New England with Watt sidelined, and with the Patriots 0-1, you have to think they'll get the win here.

It's no surprise New England is favored and taking money. Mac Jones (back) is practicing fully, while the Steelers won't have their best player in TJ Watt (pectoral). Running back Najee Harris apparently will play through his foot injury. The Steelers mustered 13 first downs in their miracle upset of the Bengals (plus-5 in turnovers helped). New England played the Dolphins fairly evenly except for being minus-3 in turnovers. Look for Kendrick Bourne to be more involved and spark the Pats' offense, and for Bill Belichick to improve to 9-3 all-time versus Mike Tomlin.