In Aaron Rodgers' NFL career, he is one of the most profitable quarterbacks of all-time against the spread at home in primetime (69%), after a loss (64%) and specifically against the Bears (74%). Guess what triumvirate of circumstances collides Sunday night in Green Bay? Yes, the Packers’ depleted set of pass catchers is a concern, but No. 1 wide receiver Allen Lazard is back in the fold. Last week at Minnesota (23-7) was tough, but it wasn't that dissimilar from how Green Bay opened 2021 falling at New Orleans (38-3). What did the Packers do the next week? They won at home by 18. Chicago won’t have the same weather luck it got last week (hiding some of the team’s most glaring flaws). Let’s hope Green Bay allows us to R-E-L-A-X with a primetime win to cap a rough week.

The Bears pulled out a win last week while the Packers made a repeat of 2021 Week 1 with a blowout loss. The Packers went on the win their next seven and cover their next nine games after the loss. Different story this season without WR Davante Adams, but Aaron Rodgers is still there. He’s been beating down the Bears his entire career and has won and covered the last six meetings with them. The Bears' second-half play last week aided by lots of rain and an opposing QB not yet ready to start. Packers to cover.

There is a ton of value here, with the Over hitting in 61 of my simulations and the model projecting more than 45 points. Aaron Rodgers will have a giant chip on his shoulder this week. Chicago’s defense was gashed by the 49ers running game in Week 1, so Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should be fired up, too. Justin Fields will do enough for the Bears to put up some points against a defense that yielded 6.5 yards per play last week. Green Bay’s division games are 10-3 to the Over since 2020.

The Packers offense looked like a shell of its former self in Week 1, but how much of that can we attribute to the loss of Davante Adams? Remember, the Packers lost last year's opener 38-3 and went on to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They followed that stinker up with a home game against an NFC North punching bag (Lions) and get the same this week with the Bears coming to town. Chicago is coming off a surprise win thanks in part to the extreme weather, and I don't see the Bears offense being able to keep up with something-to-prove Aaron Rodgers. Hopefully the Packers offense is healthier for this game after missing Allen Lazard and both starting tackles in Week 1, but either way, this should be a blowout. Wait to see if you can get -9.5.