It seems forgotten how hamstrung the Steelers were with Ben Roethlisberger under center last season. That’s not to say Mitch Trubisky is some world beater – and backing Trubisky against the defending AFC champions is a tough ask -- but it’s difficult to dismiss the difference in having a capable quarterback. The Bengals have won three straight in the rivalry after the Steelers took the prior 11 meetings. While Cincinnati will be the better team this season – and another Super Bowl run is certainly on the table – a lack of preseason work coupled with a tenacious Pittsburgh defense will keep this within the key number.

Teams in obvious decline typically end the season in line with the preseason predictions. Often, though, a team with lowered expectations, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, will create a glimmer of hope early. After losing to the Bengals by double digits twice last season (14 and 31 points), the defense will be motivated and allow the offense to take a safe approach. Take the points here with the Steelers.

The Steelers are a take at this key number. Their reshuffled offense might surpass the modest expectations of many observers, and their pass rush could disrupt the Bengals if they can get to Joe Burrow. I'm not sure the BEngals will be the one-year wonder many are predicting, but this matchup screams a one-score affair.

The line inching up from 6.5 could make a difference. Under coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have covered in 14 of 20 as an away underdog against division brethren. The main reason: the Steelers’ defense, which has contributed to Unders in more than two-thirds of roadies for Tomlin. The Bengals upgraded their offensive line, but the fresh personnel might need time to jell. Pittsburgh’s nasty pass rush could confound an offensive line revamped to cure the Bengals’ chief ill from 2021: allowing sacks. Nearly any other opponent would have been preferable for an opener.

It's easy to remember that the Bengals are coming off a Super Bowl appearance, but what's easy to forget is that at 10-7 they finished a mere half game ahead of the 9-7-1 Steelers -- despite beating Pittsburgh twice. Even putting aside the fact that the losing Super Bowl teams have gone 4-18 ATS in Week 1 the following season, this is a divisional game, and it's against a team led by Mike Tomlin, who'll be sure to have the Steelers fired up about those two ugly losses. Mitchell Trubisky should be an upgrade from the late-career dink-and-dunk version of Big Ben. As with most AFC North battles: Take the points.

The Steelers played most of their starters in the preseason, while the Bengals decided to rest nearly every key player on the roster. The Bengals went 2-0 against Pittsburgh last season (outscored Pittsburgh 65-20), despite getting outgained 643-638. Mike Tomlin and company are 4-1-1 straight-up of in their last six when playing on the road in Week 1. This line seems super inflated to me for a division game in Week 1. Division underdogs are 29-9-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2014. Take the road dog!

I'm generally not going to play NFL games early as that kinda bit me last year until a solid rally at the end. I liked Cincinnati anyways here but now I'm going to jump just in case TJ Watt is seriously hurt. Not even sure why he was playing in Sunday's preseason game and as a fan (of the NFL overall not the Steelers) I hope he's not hurt. I give the Steelers not a great chance here regardless whether it's Mitch Trubisky (which would be my guess) or Kenny Pickett under center, but without Watt very little shot.