This line has seen some wild movement both before and in the aftermath of both the Deshaun Watson suspension and Baker Mayfield landing in Carolina. Although he Mayfield "revenge" angle is massively overhyped, he is the better of the two QBs on the field Sunday and, if he plays like it, the Panthers should win. Jacoby Brissett played poorly as a would-be bridge QB for Miami last year, and an improved Carolina defense should at least limit Cleveland's powerful run game. The Watson situations has to be something of a distraction and, if Carolina coach Matt Rhule can't manage a win in this one, his seat could let a lot warmer real soon.

It's a revenge game for Baker Mayfield after he won the starting job in Carolina, but it's also a revenge game for the Browns defense, who got to see everything Mayfield has to offer on a weekly basis in practice over the last few years. I don't expect Ben McAdoo to unlock any previously-unseen tricks to Mayfield's game in this matchup, and the Carolina O-line is likely going to struggle mightily against this ferocious front. The Browns are certainly a below-average team with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback due to the state of their offense, but they can beat mediocre opponents with defense and the run game, especially those that have questionable defenses of their own. Love the points and moneyline with the Browns.

I like the Panthers on the moneyline here at -120 as my model has Carolina winning just over 60 percent of simulations (-150) in the Baker Mayfield revenge game. I'm not overly high on the Panthers this season, but I'm happy to back them on their home field (worth two full points ) in this spot. Having a healthy trio of Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson should be enough to keep Mayfield out of trouble as we should see a relatively conservative game plan with plenty of touches for McCaffrey.

The Panthers started last season with a QB revenge game, and Sam Darnold beat the Jets. Two more victories thereafter gave them a 3-0 record, but Carolina wound up winning just two more games the rest of the way. The Panthers offense was one of the worst in the league. Now Baker Mayfield is under center, and he too will start by facing his former team. Having a more competent QB is great, but I think the most important aspect is RB Christian McCaffrey being back and healthy. I like him to set the tone in this game and be the star to deliver the win with Mayfield playing a conservative but effective game and the defense giving Browns QB Jacoby Brissett trouble. Take the Panthers to cover.

Under head coaches and starting quarterbacks too numerous to count, one aspect of the Cleveland Browns remains consistent: They lose season openers. The Browns have failed to win their past 17 Week 1 games, though one ended in a tie. In two of the latest three, Cleveland was drubbed by 32 and 30 points. Hanging over their preparation this summer is the dark cloud of new QB Deshaun Watson's legal issues and pending suspension. The Panthers, on the other hand, have a healthy QB battle: Sam Darnold versus Baker Mayfield. If Mayfield claims the job, he will be as pumped as any NFL player in Week 1, going against the team that discarded him.