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Mon 01/17 | 1:15 AM UTC | Kansas City
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7, 8-9 ATS
PIT +12
PIT +475
Over 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs 12-5, 8-9 ATS
KC -12
KC -700
Under 46.5

Expert Picks

Pittsburgh 21 @ Kansas City 42 | 01/17 | 1:15 AM UTC

Kansas City -12.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: If the playoffs had not been extended, the Chiefs would be resting up on a bye while the Steelers' season would've already been over. Instead, we have a rematch of a 36-10 drubbing from last month, a game in which Kansas City was short-handed yet still absolutely dominated Pittsburgh. What I can't figure out is how to give the Steelers an edge here. The Chiefs are better on both sides of the ball, and the coaching matchup is at least a wash. In the wild card round, double-digit home favorites are 5-0 ATS since 2003, covering those spreads by nearly a touchdown on average. Unless Kansas City takes its foot off the gas late or completely fails to block T.J. Watt, I don't know how Pittsburgh stays within two touchdowns. A teaser with the Bucs (-7 to -1) is interesting if this spread is too high for you.

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Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+1394 59-41 IN LAST 100 NFL PICKS
+577 28-20-2 IN LAST 50 KC ATS PICKS
+174 14-11 IN LAST 25 PIT ATS PICKS

Season Splits

9-7, 8-9 ATS
12-5, 8-9 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
47%
8-9
8-9
47%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
4-4
4-5
44%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
60%
6-4
8-9
47%
When Spread was +11 to +14
SPREAD
When Spread was -14 to -11
0%
0-0
0-1
0%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
4-4
4-5
44%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
56%
5-4
3-4
43%
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
56%
5-4
4-1
80%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
36%
5-9
6-8
43%
vs KC
HEAD TO HEAD
vs PIT
0%
0-1
1-0
100%