Forget the first meeting, the final score of which was not indicative of the closeness of the game. Rather, focus on the Bengals’ recent play against teams far better than the Raiders. The one apprehension I have against backing Cincinnati is that Joe Burrow is far more effective against man defenses, while Las Vegas runs an extremely high percentage of zone. But "zone" is exactly what Burrow is in right now. He and the Bengals are rested mentally and physically, while the Raiders exhausted both last week. This was more attractive at -5.5 but remains a fair value. Cincy enters on a 4-0 ATS streak (2-0 at home).

What a nice story it has been for the Raiders and how they were able to turn around their season and get into the playoffs. Well, there won't be any fairy-tale ending here, as the Bengals are still as strong as they were when they beat the Raiders 32-13 earlier in this season.

Too many people are making a big thing about the Bengals' 32-13 victory over the Raiders earlier in the season. The truth is that the previous matchup was a three-point game deep into the fourth quarter before it got out of hand and Cincinnati blew the game open. I'm expecting another close game between these teams on Saturday; the Raiders know nothing but close games. And no team has been as resilient as them. Vegas covers.

The Raiders were quite fortunate to make the playoffs, but this is a good matchup for them. The first meeting, a 32-13 Bengals' win in Las Vegas, was actually a toss-up game decided by turnovers. Joe Burrow was held to 148 passing yards, and a season-low 5.1 yards per attempt, as his offensive tackles struggled to hold up versus Maxx Crosby (101 pressures this season) and Yannick Ngakoue (10 sacks). Look for Josh Jacobs, who's been dynamite the past three weeks, to take the pressure off Derek Carr as the Raiders keep this close.

Set aside the Raiders’ offensive muscle-flexing last Sunday against the Chargers, and this is a so-so unit, having averaged 14 points in the previous five games. Cincy’s run defense is ranked No. 5 and should keep ailing RB Josh Jacobs grounded. At his best, Bengals QB Joe Burrow is a monster, owing in large part to the magnetic hands of his receivers, but inconsistency and a knack for getting sacked (51 times!) has haunted him. The lethal Vegas pass rush will put Burrow in constant chase mode.

The Raiders are riding a four-game winning streak into the playoffs, largely due to the defense playing well against limited passing attacks before gutting out a wild win over the Chargers in Week 18. I don't have confidence they'll be able to slow down a Bengals offense that piled up 75 points and 1,050 yards against the Ravens and Chiefs in its last two competitive games. Even though the Raiders offense just came out on top in a shootout, that hasn't been their M.O., averaging 16 points in their previous five games. Darren Waller should help, but this feels like a game a much better Bengals team wins by double digits.

Las Vegas escaped with a 35-32 overtime win over the Chargers last Sunday despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 38:41 and 88 plays. Seven of their 10 victories have come indoors. Las Vegas will be playing its first game in sub-freezing temperatures in quite some time. I don't think this is an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential, and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while Cincinnati commits the second-fewest. Las Vegas won't get revenge for its Week 11 loss. Take the Bengals.

Going to grab this total now because it may only drop looking at the weather forecast Saturday in Cincinnati. It will be cold this time of year of course but also snow showers with 1-3 inches of snow expected. Obviously, the Raiders are a warm-weather/indoor team so I could see them really struggling offensively. I'm still deciding on the spread but leaning Bengals.