This line might be on its way up. Both teams looked to be in a must-win spot with playoff contention on the line, but now, the Raiders may be in position to get in no matter the outcome of this game. The Chargers are my pick up to -4, so even though you might eat a hook or extra point, that's OK given they could have a significant motivational edge. Even with Darren Waller back, Los Angeles has the playmaking advantage and still has the superior quarterback in Justin Herbert. While this is far more attractive at a flat field goal, I'm still comfortable at this line if it goes up 0.5-1 given the potentially changing playoff circumstances.

As a resident of Vegas, I can tell you that this town will give the Raiders a huge home field edge on Sunday. The people here want to see this team in the playoffs badly. I think the crowd and Derek Carr will be enough to carry this team over a Chargers squad that has been up-and-down all season.

According to DVOA ratings, the Chargers have the No. 3 offense and the 26th-rated defense. The Chargers rank sixth in both scoring and yards per play, while the defense ranks 26th in points per game and 24th in yards per play. Las Vegas has the 19th-ranked offense, eighth in yard per play, and is 23rd overall on defense. The key to the game going Over is Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who has the third-highest QB rating against zone defenses. Only two NFL teams run zone more than the Raiders. In the first meeting , Herbert was 25-of-38 for 222 yards and three TDs, with no interceptions.

Fortunes can change fast in the NFL in December and into January. The Chargers withstood a tough overtime loss to Kansas City and a disastrous setback to Houston. Now they control their playoff destiny. You can expect them to complete the difficult task of sweeping a divisional rival, while the Raiders finish another season just short of the playoffs.

L.A. has averaged nearly 34 ppg the past five weeks, more than double the Raiders’ 16 ppg during that span. The Chargers’ boon can be traced to the ground attack, which has produced 134 ypg over the last month. They rang up a hefty 168 against Las Vegas in Week 4. Forget home-field edge. Through 17 weeks, home teams are just nine games above .500 straight-up.

The Raiders' three-game win streak is a bit fraudulent. They beat a depleted Browns team, the Drew Lock-led Broncos, and a Colts team with key players, including Carson Wentz, who had just returned from COVID. The Chargers dismantled the Raiders in the first meeting, 28-13. Justin Herbert posted a 107.6 passer rating while throwing three TDs and no picks. Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs and Casey Hayward, the Raiders' top defensive back, all are questionable for Sunday night. If Hayward (ankle) can't go or is hampered, this secondary has no chance of slowing down the NFL's most efficient passing offense over the last two months. I played the Chargers -2.5 (-120) early in the week but would also lay the full field goal.

The Raiders have won three straight to have a shot at making the playoffs under interim coach Rich Bisaccia, with the defense playing great during the winning streak. But they've also gotten extremely favorable matchups against offenses in bad situations, which likely isn't going to be the case here. However, I still think this line is a few points off. The Chargers are terrible defending tight ends, and the Raiders should have Darren Waller back for this game. The Chargers defense has struggled over the second half, and I think that allows Vegas to hang around and potentially win this one. Take this while you can get +3.