The final week is the toughest to pick in any season as motivations and coaching plans are kept close to the vest. Given this game will be played before the Titans kick off Sunday, the Chiefs have every reason to go all out, build a big lead and attempt to earn the No. 1 seed with homefield advantage and a bye. Couple that motivation with the Broncos defense being heavily depleted and Drew Lock starting against an angry Kansas City defense, and you have plenty of reason to pick against Denver even at a slightly inflated number. The only concern here is a backdoor scenario if the Chiefs rest their starters in the fourth quarter, but I expect them to pour it on early. KC has won four of the last five meetings by more than this margin.

I bet the Chiefs laying this big number because Drew Lock and the Broncos appear to have packed it in. A lot of new faces are getting prime time and the secondary is green with Patrick Surtain (calf) ruled out. The Chiefs looking for the No. 1 AFC seed against the Broncos secondary is an edge. Broncos coach Vic Fangio is likely to be fired soon after. I like the Chiefs to cover as they have done the last seven games in Denver.

The Chiefs enter with plenty to play for in terms of playoff seeding and with playing on Saturday they don't have the insurance of knowing what the AFC teams around them have done. Foot on the gas. Kansas City has won 12 straight against the Denver Broncos (Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 vs. Denver as a starter) and quite frankly it would take a miracle for this number not to reach 13. So, now for the spread. The Broncos have lost three straight and scored 13 or fewer in all three of said games. This also might be the last game for Denver head coach Vic Fangio...and generally in these situations if said team is down big there's more running the football and getting out of there as opposed to a Hollywood ending. Patrick Mahomes is 12-0 SU in his career on the road vs. AFC West teams with 28 pass TD's to just 4 INT's. Square play but KC can't afford to mess around, I'll eat the chalk.

Now that this popped to 11.5 temporarily, I'm going to take the points in case of, say, a 31-20 final. Yeah, the Broncos have squat to play for and are quite thin in the secondary, but they hate the Chiefs and would love to help ruin their chances at the No. 1 seed. And, really, how full-bore will Kansas City go? In theory, the Chiefs can get the No. 1 seed but do they really think Tennessee is losing in Houston on Sunday? I can see about a 17-point late third-quarter lead and KC pulls its starters to ensure playoff health. Denver covers in the backdoor in what is likely Vic Fangio's final game as head coach -- the players to seem to love him so maybe that's added motivation to win.

The Broncos limp to the finish line with Drew Lock starting a third straight game, but he'll do so with an injured shoulder, which lowers the ceiling of the Denver offense even more heading into a matchup with an elite Chiefs defense looking for a win to stay alive for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos defense did an excellent job against the Chiefs in their first meeting back in Week 13, allowing only one offensive touchdown in a 22-9 loss. A similar final this week would not surprise me at all, and with the state of the Broncos offense, I'm surprised this number isn't sitting in the low 40s.