This is a value play with the homestanding Bengals, who should at worst be a pick 'em in this game. Instead, there's been 4.5 points of line movement, creating value that would only increase if this gets to a full +3. Concern over Joe Burrow's finger is legitimate, but let's not act like the 49ers are world-beaters here. Elijah Mitchell is out for San Francisco, which also has some holes in a secondary going against a Cincinnati team with a bevy of weapons to take advantage of that lacking depth. The Bengals' main goal must be to slow down George Kittle. A tall task, yes, but not an impossible one for a defense that's had success in the middle of the field.

While Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner are back for the Niners, they are quite thin in the secondary due to injury or other issues, and leading rusher Elijah Mitchell is out. Joe Mixon is a go for the Bengals. You just never know which Cincinnati is going to show up. I'm obviously hoping the good version.

Maybe Joe Burrow is fine and suffering a dislocated finger on his throwing hand last Sunday won’t affect him, but that seems unrealistic. The more likely scenario is that the injury will hinder Burrow’s throwing ability to some degree, which will make it tough to beat a 49ers team that — if you don’t count their kryptonite in Seattle — has lost only to the 10-2 Cardinals, 9-3 Packers and 7-6 Colts. Expect San Francisco to win its fourth out of the last five, and lay the point and a half.

The 49ers lost all the momentum from a three-game win streak by losing at Seattle last week. They face an unsteady Bengals squad that lost 41-22 at home to the Chargers last week after beating the Steelers 41-10 the previous week, also at home. The Bengals have big-play abilities but have lost three of their last five, one of those to the Jets. This bet simply came down to which team is better team and whether the Jimmy Garoppolo-to-George Kittle connection is available. 49ers to cover.

Tough spot for the 49ers with a cluster of injuries at RB and CB, not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season and third road game in 22 days. San Francisco is 0-3 ATS on turf this season. Cincinnati will be getting back both starting tackles after they missed last week's home loss to the Chargers. The Bengals, whose defense ranks fourth in the NFL against the run, are 6-1 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. The 49ers are 0-2 SU when the temperature at kickoff is 40 degrees or colder, but it should be closer to 44 on Sunday. I thought that was worth mentioning. Take the Bengals.

Both of these teams were hot coming into Week 13 but now are looking to bounce back from a loss. San Francisco's defense played better than the final score indicated, and they'll benefit here from Joe Burrow dealing with a finger injury. While he rallied his team back briefly, Burrow seemed to struggle to overcome the issue, and that could continue as he plays through the pain. That reduces the upside of the Cincy offense, and with Logan Wilson likely out due to a shoulder dislocation, George Kittle could be in for another big day working the middle of the field. I'll count on the 49ers to put up a quality performance on offense while limiting a banged-up QB on defense.