The Buccaneers have seen a nice bounce back after a couple rough weeks, but this pick is far more about the Bills and their maddening inconsistency. Buffalo was so badly outcoached against New England last week that it puts into question whether this team can be trusted against top-quality competition. In fact, the Bills are just 1-4 ATS against teams above .500 this season. The Bucs, meanwhile, have covered three straight and are 4-1 ATS at home (5-0 straight up) with their lone failure coming against the Cowboys in Week 1. I never like taking a hook, so wait until closer to kickoff to see if you can get -3, but I'll be on Tampa Bay either way. Rhyme not intended.

I realize the Bills will be without cornerback Tre'Davious White, who's out for the season, but pass defense is about more than just one person, and Buffalo has a defense to slow Tom Brady & Co. The Bills allow just 165.3 passing yards per game, which is the best in the league. Buffalo also needs this game much more than the Bucs after losing to New England on Monday. I'm on the Bills.

We will continue to buy stock in teams coming off a Monday night loss. Buffalo has dipped to 7-5 and faces a streaking Tampa Bay team. Weather will not be an issue, so expect the offense to bounce back significantly under Josh Allen. Take the Bills in a game they need for a confidence-booster.

The Bills have lost four of their last seven games and come into a dominant den in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) with a 38-16 average score. The Bucs have looked vulnerable on the road, but at home they crush it. Why stop betting them at home now, when Buffalo is struggling? It would be different if the Bills were on a roll, but the 9-6 loss at Jacksonville showed us something. Bucs to cover.

It feels like the Bills are a roller coaster team to cap this season but take a deeper look at their offensive output in the last four games. 10 against the Patriots and 15 against the Colts compared to 31 against the Saints and 45 vs. the Jets. Long story short, the Bills are 1-4 SU this season against teams with a winning record. Josh Allen has nine turnovers in his last five games. How are the Bucs at home this season? 5-0 SU and have won the last four by 20+ points each. I'll ride with Brady and the Bucs especially catching Buffalo on a short week after a demoralizing loss.

Throw out the stats from the Bills' loss to the Patriots due to weather, but the game had plenty of questionable decision-making from their coaching staff. Now they hit the road to face my No. 1 power-rated team, and I'm not sure how the defense slows down Tom Brady after losing Tre'Davious White for the season. The Bills offense has been inconsistent all year, so while they could show up and go toe to toe with the MVP front-runner, there's also a pretty solid chance they fall flat like they have several times this season. If the former happens, I think we have a 50/50 shot at a cover. If the latter happens, we'll roll.