It's going to be near-impossible for any team to stop the Cowboys offense over 60 minutes, which begs the question: Will the Panthers be able to limit it enough and keep up? As much as I like Chuba Hubbard, the answer without Christian McCaffrey is that it's unlikely to be the case for Carolina. C.J. Henderson is not going to immediately be a perfect fit in the Panthers defense, despite his talent, and Dak Prescott is a massive upgrade in talent from the quarterbacks that unit has exploited over the last few weeks. Dallas' defense under Dan Quinn seems to be improving each week, and I like the Cowboys to continue their momentum in a home spot here.

Hard to believe a running back out would make this much of a difference but that's where I sit between the Panthers and Cowboys. Don't get it twisted, Carolina is a hell of a football team, however without Christian McCaffrey I have to lean Dallas here with that explosive offense. The Cowboys lead the NFL in takeaways and while that number likely comes back down to the median, I'll take my chances in a game where Sam Darnold likely has to throw it 32+ times. Dallas has scored 30+ points in five of Dak Prescott's last eight games. While Carolina is really good, not sure they can keep up in a shootout. Sam Darnold has never won four straight in his career, the streak stays alive.

The Panthers are playing tremendous defense, but here are the QBs they've faced: Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, Davis Mills. Dak Prescott is completing an NFL-best 77.5 percent of his throws and should have his way against a secondary missing Jaycee Horn and Juston Burris. Dallas has the best offensive balance in the league. Carolina will be limited without Christian McCaffrey, and D.J. Moore isn't going to be wide open with Trevon Diggs likely shadowing him. Despite Carolina's huge rest advantage, I'm laying the points.

Few non-QBs are as indispensable to a team as Christian McCaffrey is to Carolina. He has 52 of the team’s 93 rushes this season and is the No. 2 receiver. The Panthers did OK without him last year during an injury spell, but McCaffrey’s absence will be magnified here because Dallas’ offense, averaging 30.0 points per game, has been nigh unstoppable. QB Dak Prescott bears feint resemblance to two rookies -- the Jets' Zach Wilson and the Texans' Davis Mills -- the Panthers have faced. Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs is on an interception-per-game streak.

Now that this line is down to 4, I think the value on Dallas is worth making a play. I've talked up the Panthers defense a lot so far this year, but the injury to Jaycee Horn is a big one when you have to face the Cowboys' elite pass offense. Carolina's defense has looked awesome, but it's gotten to face three limited offenses so far. The Cowboys have shown they can have success in the air and on the ground, so this is a tough test. With Christian McCaffrey also sidelined, the pressure will be on Sam Darnold to keep up on the scoreboard, and I need to see it to believe it, especially with the Dallas defense looking pretty solid thus far.

What's that? The world thinks the Cowboys are good because they're healthy and beat the Eagles during a primetime spotlight game? Sounds like the perfect time to fade the Cowboys! Honestly, I do think the Cowboys are good, but I think the Panthers are good too, and they aren't getting nearly enough credit with this line.

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest. I have many notes going back to the early 2000s that suggest fading Dallas at home against winning teams when playing an early Sunday kickoff. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third-down conversion percentage. Carolina's Matt Rhule won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games against winning teams and just 1-6 ATS in its past seven October games.

This has fallen under an important number of 5 so now there's value. Obviously the rest factor is working huge against Dallas here, but the Carolina offense did very little last Thursday in Houston once Christian McCaffrey went out injured -- and he's not playing this week. The Panthers are also banged up in the secondary with starting safety Juston Burris joining excellent rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn on injured reserve (Carolina did trade for Jags corner CJ Henderson this week).