When there's a tight spread like this, especially with a home underdog, what I normally look at are two simple yet telling factors: Which team has the better quarterback, and which team has the better defense? The answer to both of those questions in this game is the Seahawks. Then add that Seattle has probably been crushing itself all week after that disastrous home loss, and this surely feels like a bounce-back game. Adding to my trust for the Seahawks is that Dalvin Cook looks to be inactive for the Vikings, but even if he does play, he's clearly going to be hobbled. Remember: Without the run game, Tennessee doesn't beat Seattle last week.

The Seahawks have historically been very good in September and Dalvin Cook isn’t expected to play today. They are coming off a brutal home loss against the Titans but I think they should be motivated for a bounceback performance today. The Vikings defense has been brutal this season and I think the Seahawks should control the running game. Usually that leads to success for the Seahawks, so I will take the Seahawks on the road to cover.

The Titans trailed 24-9 and 30-16 at Seattle last week, but they didn’t waver from the run and it led them to paydirt in overtime. They rushed 40 times for 212 yards and passed for 320 yards. I think the Vikings can do the same thing at home this week. They almost had the same plan at Arizona last week, losing 34-33 on a missed chip-shot field goal. The desperate Vikings get the money.

Homefield advantage hasn't meant much this season, but it should Sunday in Minnesota as the Vikings try to break a seven-game skid against the Seahawks. It's the first home game with a full crowd since 2019, and there will be a ton of hoopla leading up to kickoff. Mike Zimmer's Vikings are desperate after an 0-2 start that could easily have been 2-0. Dalvin Cook (ankle) is questionable but I expect him to play. Derrick Henry's success last week at Seattle bodes well for Cook. Kirk Cousins is playing at a very. high level. This is Seattle's second trip east in three weeks. Take the points.

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Last season the Seahawks defeated the Vikings, 27-26, as 6.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained, 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 first-down advantage too. After two games this season, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, then at home, and now face another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play-against in the third game. Take the hungry host.

The Vikings can't really afford to drop another game but this is a brutal spot for them against a hungry Seattle team. I don't trust this Vikings defense against Wilson, Lockett, Metcalf and Carson. My simulations make the Seahawks -3.7 points better on the road as I'm expecting a big day from DK Metcalf. Lay it.

The Vikings are coming off back-to-back gut-punches, losing in OT to the Bengals and missing a game-winning field goal last week. Will they bounce back mentally and be 100% focused with their prep for this contest? Seattle also had a last-second lost last week, but the Seahawks are the No. 1 team in the NFL against the spread after a loss since 2016. The Vikings defense has not looked good, and the Vikings offense may not have Dalvin Cook at 100% after he got dinged up in Week 2. With such a short number, even in a competitive game we could get a last-minute cover from Russell Wilson and Co., but I think they're the better team by a decent margin anyway.