This line has dipped below the key number, making New England even more attractive. The Saints are embarking on their third straight road game, with a limited arsenal of offensive weapons. Mac Jones is playing at a high level and won't force throws. Even though Marshon Lattimore is back, I like the Patriots to cover at home in a relatively low-scoring affair.

The Saints defense should be in a better place this week with Marshon Lattimore expected to play, and he'll get to team up with Bradley Roby for the first time. Don't expect many explosive plays from the Patriots offense, which they've been hesitant to pursue anyway with Mac Jones at QB. On the other side of the ball, the Saints offense had just six first downs last week and does not appear to have the horses to put up big point totals very often, despite what we saw in Week 1. Bill Belichick is good at taking away an offense's best player, and if the Patriots can neutralize Alvin Kamara, how do the Saints move the ball? This seems like a great Under spot.

Mac Jones has been about as game-managery as a game manager can be to start his NFL career, and that's great for him and the Patriots. It's just, I'm not willing to trust Mac as a favorite in the NFL yet against anybody but the worst NFL teams, and the Saints do not qualify as one of those. You can never be sure what you'll get from Jameis Winston, but I do have a lot of trust in Sean Payton to put together a game plan to keep the Saints in the game against this Patriots team.

Three straight away games are rare in today’s NFL, except when Mother Nature intervenes. A hurricane sent the Saints out of state, where they have stayed for a month, and forced them to open the season with a road triple (one "home" game in Jacksonville). The Patriots induced rookie QB Zach Wilson into four interceptions last Sunday. Though Saints QB Jameis Winston is a veteran, he is prone to picks. Injuries on the New Orleans defense should help the Pats execute a conservative game plan with fresh-out-of-college QB Mac Jones.

This spread has dipped under 3 for the first time this week, so let's take it in case it doesn't stay there. I believe the Saints and especially QB Jameis Winston were totally exposed in last Sunday's loss in Carolina. New Orleans played without a handful of injured defensive starters and three of them, end Marcus Davenport, linebacker Kwon Alexander and Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore, are expected out again this week (Davenport and Alexander for sure). The Saints still haven't returned to New Orleans since before Hurricane Ida and that has to be tough on the players. The Pats should win by a field goal.