No TJ Watt for the Steelers, which makes me nervous about this pick, but I still like them under 3. Cincinnati is without its best cornerback (Trae Waynes) and wideout Tee Higgins, plus an offensive lineman. I watched the Bengals last week against my Bears ... they just aren't that good.

Sometimes, your heart gets in the way of your brain when it comes to picking football games. This is of those times. Yes, the Steelers are banged up. Yes, they are without TJ Watt. Yes, they have been incredibly unimpressive this season. But do I actually think Pittsburgh is going to lose back-to-back home games at Heinz Field? No, I don't. Ben Roethlisberger has his issues, but he's still the veteran in this game, and the Steelers get a much easier offense this week after going against Josh Allen and Derek Carr. As great as Joe Burrow may be one day, he's not quite there yet. With the line coming down significantly, there's now value on PIttsburgh at under a field goal. I'm taking it, and I'm looking at the under in this game also.

For the majority of last week’s loss against the Bears, the Cincinnati Bengals looked lifeless. A late surge was not enough as the Bears got a late first down to run out the clock. Yet, look for the Bengals to challenge a Steelers team that features a pedestrian offense. Grab the points.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (pectoral) will play. Star teammate T.J. Watt (groin) will not. Their contrasting status tips the scales to an Over. Roethlisberger has endured more games while injured than any QB alive or dead. Immobile to begin with, he should be the same old Big Ben. The absence of Watt, a QB-chasing LB, will lower the temperature for the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, who has more sacks per dropback through two weeks than any QB.

The Steelers are ravaged by injuries right now, with Joe Haden and Devin Bush unable to play last week, and their two best players (T.J. Watt, Diontae Johnson) suffering injuries during the game. With Ben Roethlisberger also dealing with a pec issue, there's no way Pittsburgh should be more than three-point faves against any non-basement team until they get healthier and the offense shows up. The Bengals may have been sitting at 2-0 right now if Joe Burrow doesn't throw three picks on three straight passes considering the offense came alive after that, and the Cincinnati defense has been a revelation so far, particularly against the run. I think Cincy is a live 'dog here with a chance of pulling off an outright win.