Don't love the hook on this game, but with this at a neutral site and the Packers entering as clearly stronger on both ends of the field, I'm able to put aside any concerns and back Green Bay. It's quite simple: New Orleans is down a ton of staters, its secondary is a mixed bag, and I don't trust Jameis Winston in a shootout against Aaron Rodgers. I like the Packers defense to contain Alvin Kamara just enough and take some shots at Winston to force his normal miscues. This should be a fun game, but it's going the way of the green and yellow.

I like the Packers in this spot on the road because they have more stability than the Saints despite the offseason drama in Green Bay. The teams play in Jacksonville, and I laid the moneyline instead of laying more than a field goal. I believe the more we see of Jameis Winston the more chances he has to make an error, at least in Week 1. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur is 26-6 in two seasons because Aaron Rodgers rarely makes mistakes. The Saints have lost lots of new faces on defense, and it’ll show against Rodgers.

I was on the fence with this at Packers -4, but I'll bite back down at -3.5 as if anything it will go back up. Of course, it's in Jacksonville and probably will be 60 percent Packers fans if not more. The Saints reportedly chose there over Tampa or Miami because it's harder to fly from Wisconsin to Jacksonville than those cities. Awesome. The Saints are without WR Michael Thomas, DT David Onyemata and K Will Lutz for sure, and it's looking as if WR Tre'Quan Smith may sit too. Their secondary is a mess -- trade acquisition Bradley Roby is suspended Week 1. For Green Bay, top pass-rusher and linebacker Za'Darius Smith looked iffy a week or so ago but now is trending toward playing even if not quite 100 percent.

For Green Bay, the case begins and ends with Aaron Rodgers. After playing hard-to-get, he returned to the fold -- disgruntled, perhaps, but the public’s second choice nonetheless to win league MVP. His opposite, Jameis Winston, has a high ceiling but a basement-level floor. Winston’s supporting cast has been thinned out by the absence of injured WR Michael Thomas and the release of RB Latavius Murray over a contract dispute. The team still has not returned home after being displaced to Dallas by Hurricane Ida, and Packers fans could represent the majority in the neutral-field matchup.

After we found out Aaron Rodgers wasn't leaving Green Bay, this line sat at Packers -3 for much of the preseason. After we found out it would be played in Jacksonville instead of New Orleans, it was rehung at Packers -4. As much as I've harped on home-field advantage not being worth three points, it's certainly worth more than one, particularly for a team like the Saints. Throw in the disruption of their regular routine by being on the road for the foreseeable future due to Hurricane Ida, along with Michael Thomas' injury leaving New Orleans shorthanded at receiver, and this line looks several points light to me.