Not generally fond of backing teams over -7, but with rookie Jalen Hurts getting his first start for the Eagles against the ferocious Saints defense, this game has an opportunity to get out of hand. Don't get me wrong, Hurts may be an upgrade from Carson Wentz eventually, but his insertion here makes extreme results -- a New Orleans blowout or Philadelphia surprise win -- more possible than they would have been with Wentz under center. Taysom Hill is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS leading this offense. New Orleans has won four of its last five games (the four against first-time opponents, not counting the Falcons rematch) by 35, 14, 15 and 28 points. So will I take the Saints with the hook? Sure, why not?!

Who had this game as Taysom Hill vs. Jalen Hurts back when the NFL schedule was released? Hurts at least should give the Eagles a spark with his running ability, and New Orleans is down starting cornerback Patrick Robinson. I'm not saying Philadelphia will win, but maybe New Orleans is looking ahead a bit to next week's potential Super Bowl 55 preview vs. Kansas City.

The Eagles have gone Under in six straight games while the Saints have done so in each of their last five contests. New Orleans is second in the NFL in both total and rushing defense while ranking fourth against the pass. The Saints also are fifth in points allowed, giving up 20.1 per game. Philadelphia is seventh against the pass and ranks 13th in total defense. With both teams employing backup QBs, don't expect a lot of points.

Philadelphia's offense ranks 28th in yards per play, 26th in points per game and 29th in DVOA. The Eagles will start rookie QB Jalen Hurts, a two-point drop-off from Carson Wentz. Philadelphia is 14th in rushing offense but offensive line ranks 17th in the run game but last in sacks allowed, the biggest reason Wentz has had such a poor season. Its defense is 15th in DVOA but, more importantly, seventh over the last six weeks in yards allowed per play allowed at just 5.3. The Saints' defense ranks second in DVOA, but the offense once again will be without QB Drew Brees.

Not many people are expecting much from new Eagles starting QB Jalen Hurts. What they are missing is that Hurts' ability to buy time in the pocket and create outside of it with his legs will have the offense looking much more stable than it has all season. The Eagles defensive line should be able to affect the pocket enough against Taysom Hill and force some early punts. This will be a game that'll come down to a field goal.

The Eagles are throwing Jalen Hurts into the fire against a defense that ranks second in DVOA and hasn't given up more than 16 points in five straight games, including against QBs like Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. With the Philadelphia offensive line in shambles, it's hard to see the Eagles offense scoring many points in this game. Five straight Saints games have gone Under thanks to their defense plus an offense that looks to run first with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Eagles defense hasn't been terrible either, which is another reason six straight Philadelphia games have gone Under. We should expect this matchup to go Under a majority of the time as well.

Drew Brees ... who needs him? Taysom Hill, a supposed wildcat QB, could hand the reins back to the master next week after having gone 4-0 straight-up. The sparkling record is less a product of Hill as it is the stellar surrounding cast that includes Sean Payton. The head coach is not only 8-0 SU but also ATS without an injured Brees. Philly also swaps out QBs but for a different reason. Carson Wentz has regressed to the point that rookie Jalen Hurts will start for the first time. Pity Hurts, given that the Eagles offense is a grease fire and the Saints defense allows the fewest yards in the league.

Taysom Hill will start for the Saints, and he'll look to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS as the starter. Philly has struggled all season to defend running quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts will have his hands full with a Saints defense that's given up 44 points over the past five games. Under Sean Payton, New Orleans is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 road games. Lay it.

We have a little more uncertainty than normal in this game as it's Jalen Hurts vs. Taysom Hill. My simulations make the Saints -8.1 points better on the road in Philadelphia, and I'm jumping on this at the key number of -7 due to some injury concerns for the Eagles. Jason Peters and Alshon Jeffery have popped with injury concerns Wednesday afternoon.