Though I would like this even more at -4 and will shop for that line ahead of kickoff, I still feel as if I’m getting two points of value here with the Rams. Why? The Patriots are overrated entering this game after Bill Belichick was able to take advantage of two of the league’s worst coaches. Sean McVay has been a prior victim of Belichick, but you have to believe he’s been champing at the bit to get an opportunity to redeem himself. Plus, the Rams have a stronger defense than either team the Pats just faced. I’m not exactly sure how New England is going to score Thursday night. Even if Los Angeles struggles at times, it should win by a touchdown unless some confluence of turnovers and special teams shenanigans happen to fall the Pats’ way.

Glad I waited a bit this morning as the spread has dropped to 4.5. I doubt it gets any lower. Both teams are healthy -- the Pats are listing a ton of guys as questionable, including Cam Newton, but all should play; see news feed story. It's still tough to trust New England on the road as its two away victories this season are over the winless Jets and the imploding/mistake-prone Chargers. Jared Goff is 8-2 ATS in his past 10 primetime games and the Rams are the only team ranked in the Top 5 in the league in total offense and defense. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at night.

The Patriots have played four straight Unders. Every Rams' home game has stayed Under this season. Strikingly, those Unders have come by an average of 13.4 points. Look for a conservative approach from the Pats, without the huge special teams plays they pulled off versus the Chargers. Go Under.

The Patriots averaged 4.4 yards per play versus the Chargers, and that was actually much better than their 3.5 yards-per-play average versus Arizona. Of course they won both, but they're facing a totally different challenge in the Rams. You can't count on New England scoring on special teams. Jared Goff was flummoxed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. But now he has a wealth of weapons around him, and I think he'll prove he's a much better QB now. He also loves playing on Thursday nights (career 116.5 passer rating in four starts). Lay the points.

The Rams have a few good running backs and Jared Goff has great targets to throw to in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee. The Rams can stop the run and New England can't do anything but run. The Patriots don't have a passing game, and that will be their downfall here.

It's easy to want to back the Patriots here; after all, Bill Belichick's defense absolutely snuffed out this offense on the biggest stage in football less than two years ago. But the key difference is how much better the Rams defense has gotten, ranking near the top of the league in several key metrics. The Patriots defense has turned things around over the last few weeks but is not having a particularly good year, and the offense can't really threaten through the air. Against a defense as good as the one in L.A., that's bad news. The Patriots will have to create turnovers early to stay in this game, and if they can't, the Rams should roll.