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nfl - Sun 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC | SoFi Stadium |

New England @ L.A. Chargers

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
LAC -2
-2.5
Over / Under
47
49
ML
LAC -135
-125

Matchup breakdown

New England
LAC
PROJ SCORE
6-9
W-L
6-9
6-9
ATS W-L
8-7
4-10
O/U
8-7
-2.7
PT DIFF
-3.9
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Fri 12/4

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

L.A. Chargers PK

LOSS

The Pats' defense has been abysmal on the road. They're 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, giving up an average of 28.4 points. Look for Justin Herbert (23 TDs, 7 INTs), Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen to shine as the Chargers improve to 3-3 at home.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+856 13-4-2 IN LAST 19 LAC ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NE ATS PICKS

Zack Cimini

Contrarian with Chutzpah
Sun 12/6

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

New England +1.5

WIN

In seasons past, the Patriots' defense rose to the occasion in cold-weather months under Tom Brady. Even with a depleted roster, the unit is turning the corner once again. The Chargers have found ways to lose late in games all season. Take the Patriots, who are getting value based on a 1-4 ATS road record.

+585 7-1 IN LAST 8 NE ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Fri 12/4

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

New England PK

WIN

The Patriots offense wants to run the ball, ranking third in rush attempts and fourth in rush DVOA. And that's good news in this matchup, as the Chargers rank 31st in rush DVOA on defense. The New England defense typically owns rookie quarterbacks, and even though Justin Herbert isn't playing like a rookie, Bill Belichick's stop unit has shown up in two of their last three games after struggling earlier in the year. If this game is close, as the line indicates, don't you trust Belichick to make the right calls to win the game? And don't you expect the opposite from Anthony Lynn at this point? Let's play into that coaching mismatch and take the Patriots as a pick 'em.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+473 8-3 IN LAST 11 LAC ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NE ATS PICKS

Mike McClure

Money
Sun 12/6

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

New England +1.5

WIN

The return of Austin Ekeler will continue to help the Chargers, but the wrong team is favored in this game. My simulations make the Patriots -1.6 points better in a 2020 "road" game against the rookie QB. Justin Herbert is a solid player, but the Patriots have a massive coaching edge in this one. Take the points.

+463 9-4 IN LAST 13 NE ATS PICKS
+59 5-4-1 IN LAST 10 LAC ATS PICKS

Tom Fornelli

#TrustTheProcess
Thu 12/3

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

New England PK

WIN

These teams are similar in many ways when you look at the numbers, but this matchup tilts toward New England in my mind. The biggest reason for this is that the Chargers defense ranks 31st in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Rush DVOA metric. That's not good, considering they'll be going against a Patriots offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in Rush DVOA on offense. Also, considering this game is a pick-em, we can expect it to be close. The Chargers are awful in close games. They're 2-7 in one-score games this season and 13-22 in them since Anthony Lynn took over in 2017.

+85 3-2-2 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+172 4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS
+90 2-1-1 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 12/2

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

L.A. Chargers PK

LOSS

Cam Newton threw for 84 yards and was picked off twice last week, and that was at home. New England has no offense. Justin Herbert continues to impress; he's thrown 23 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Back the Chargers.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+516 14-8 IN LAST 22 NE ATS PICKS
+129 6-4 IN LAST 10 LAC ATS PICKS

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
Fri 12/4

New England @ L.A. Chargers | 12/06 | 9:25 PM UTC

L.A. Chargers PK

LOSS

If you don't look at which uniforms the players are wearing, it's clear the Chargers have much more talent all over the field than the Patriots do. There's also the fact that New England QB Cam Newton apparently isn't 100 percent with an abdomen injury, which may explain his horrible passing performance last week (not like he's been that great all season). My only concern here is that Bolts coach Anthony Lynn figures out inventive ways to mismanage the clock/blow close games, which is why he will be fired on Black Monday, but the Chargers should win this fairly easily otherwise. They are 7-3 in their past 10 hosting East Coast teams, while New England's lone road win in 2020 is at the Jets.

+225 20-16-1 IN LAST 37 NFL PICKS
+175 4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS

New England

player
QBCamNewton
20.28fan duel$7,500
21.15draft kings$5,800
21.98cbs sports
player
RBDamienHarris
10.34fan duel$5,900
11.89draft kings$5,200
10.23cbs sports
player
RBJamesWhite
8.31fan duel$5,700
10.2draft kings$5,000
6.66cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
C. NewtonCam Newton20/302041.401.100.1222.0
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
D. HarrisDamien Harris15.7830.325.30.1610.2
C. NewtonCam Newton9.4410.564.30.1222.0
J. WhiteJames White4.6190.204.20.086.7
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
J. MeyersJakobi Meyers5.2590.2711.40.067.5
D. ByrdDamiere Byrd3.5470.2313.30.046.1
N. HarryN`Keal Harry3.1260.348.30.124.6
I. FordIsaiah Ford2.6260.149.80.033.4
J. WhiteJames White3.3260.177.80.086.7
R. IzzoRyan Izzo1.4210.0715.10.112.3
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
N. DSTNE DST2.101.120.871.71.92.3

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Rex Burkhead, Julian Edelman, Matt LaCosse, J.J. Taylor, Jordan Thomas, Marqise Lee, Dont`a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Brandon Copeland, Brandon Bolden, Shilique Calhoun, Terrence Brooks, Carl Davis, Dan Vitale, Brandon King, Jack Cichy, Isaiah Mack, Beau Allen, Devin Asiasi
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

L.A. Chargers

player
QBJustinHerbert
21.76fan duel$7,900
23.8draft kings$6,900
24.26cbs sports
player
QBTyrodTaylor
0.9fan duel$6,200
0.9draft kings$4,800
1cbs sports
player
RBAustinEkeler
14.91fan duel$7,000
18.6draft kings$7,100
12.21cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
J. HerbertJustin Herbert26/383061.801.100.1524.3
T. TaylorTyrod Taylor1/2120.070.040.001.0
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
A. EkelerAustin Ekeler10.7460.214.30.1612.2
K. BallageKalen Ballage7.7280.263.60.116.5
J. KelleyJoshua Kelley6.3200.143.20.102.9
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
K. AllenKeenan Allen7.4850.5111.50.1311.5
M. WilliamsMike Williams3.2580.3818.30.038.3
A. EkelerAustin Ekeler5.4510.249.40.1612.2
H. HenryHunter Henry4.3500.2611.50.046.5
J. GuytonJalen Guyton1.8340.2519.10.024.9
T. JohnsonTyron Johnson1.4260.1018.70.033.4
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
L. DSTLAC DST1.561.090.461.61.82.3

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Virgil Green, Justin Jackson, Derwin James, Troymaine Pope, Melvin Ingram, Kyzir White, Denzel Perryman, Drue Tranquill, Cortez Broughton, Joe Reed
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 12/06/2020 20:03 GMT