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nfl - Sun 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC | NRG Stadium |

Indianapolis @ Houston

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
IND -3
-3.5
Over / Under
50
52.5
ML
IND -180
-150

Matchup breakdown

IND
Houston
PROJ SCORE
11-5
W-L
4-11
8-8
ATS W-L
5-10
9-7
O/U
6-8
5.6
PT DIFF
-5.1
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Sun 12/6

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Indianapolis -3

WIN

The Colts were trounced by Tennessee last week but should have some key players back on defense. The Texans have won two straight and three of four but will be without WR Will Fuller and CB Bradley Roby, who both were suspended six games for PED violations. Expect the Colts' fifth-ranked defense to control things en route to the team's third straight road victory.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+730 26-17-3 IN LAST 46 HOU ATS PICKS
+714 16-8-3 IN LAST 27 IND ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Tue 12/1

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Indianapolis -3

WIN

Nothing like the suspension of two of your most productive players for PED use to dampen a nice run. Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who has adjusted to the departure of super-hero DeAndre Hopkins, now will be missing WR Will Fuller, a touchdown machine. Houston's defense must fill a gaping hole left by capable CB Bradley Roby's ban. The Texans do not fare well against Indianpolis in better circumstances, with three ATS wins and five straight-up in the last 14 meetings.

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+503 16-10 IN LAST 26 IND ATS PICKS
+443 11-6-2 IN LAST 19 HOU ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Fri 12/4

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

UNDER 50.5

WIN

I expect this total is in the 50s because the Colts just got blasted by the Titans offense, but it's important to put that game in context: DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry were lost to the COVID-19 list late in the week, putting the defense in a big hole. Both are back now and getting to face a Houston offense that just lost its best receiver in Will Fuller to a suspension. The Colts offense will have to try to overcome the absence of left tackle Anthony Castonzo as well, and I can see them failing to throw up a ton of points against a Houston defense that has held teams in the 20s over the last month.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND O/U PICKS

Kenny White

Wizard of Odds
Sun 12/6

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

OVER 50.5

LOSS

Houston's defense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per play at 6.2 and 25th in DVOA. Last week, it held Detroit to just 5.1 yards per play, but it yielded 5.7 or more in each of the previous five games. Houston QB Deshaun Watson leads an offense that's ranked 11th in DVOA and has scored 27 or more points in five of the last seven contests. Indianapolis is 6-1 over its last seven games, and its offense has scored at least 30 points in four of the past six.

+495 28-21-3 IN LAST 52 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND O/U PICKS

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
Sun 12/6

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Indianapolis -3

WIN

The Colts will enter this game motivated after last week's tough home loss to the Titans and as successful road favorites as of late covering three of their last four such scenarios. I'd love this line at 2.5, but with it back at 3 down from the hook, I'm ready to pounce. Divisional matchups are always tough in the NFL, but the Colts have nearly their full complement of players and a coaching advantage where the Texans just lost their most explosive receiver and one of their top defensive backs. Houston is a sieve on the ground, and Indianapolis is going to take advantage of that. All of this is not to mention the Colts' superior defense. The Texans do not have a win against a quality opponent this season, unless you count the downtrodden Pats, and I don't think they get their first today.

+498 15-9-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS
+550 10-4-2 IN LAST 16 HOU ATS PICKS
+190 3-1-1 IN LAST 5 IND ATS PICKS

Brett Anderson

The Dog Whisperer
Sun 12/6

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Indianapolis -3

WIN

The lookahead line for this game (Colts -3) hasn't budged in weeks. Odd, since the Colts get superstar DeForest Buckner and sack leader Denico Autry back off the COVID list, while the Texans' top WR (Will Fuller) and interceptions leader (Bradley Roby) have been lost to PED suspensions. Maybe the Colts coming off a loss and the Texans coming off a win kept the spread at 3, or maybe it's because Anthony Castonzo will be out. But Indy owns this rivalry (28-9 all-time), and they've got a big coaching advantage here to go with their boost on D. Lay the points.

+183 4-2-1 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS
+129 8-6 IN LAST 14 IND ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 12/2

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Indianapolis -3

WIN

The Texans won't have Will Fuller or Bradley Roby due to suspensions. Indianapolis will rebound from last week's loss to Tennessee, as T.Y. Hilton and Nyheim Hines will torch Houston's secondary. The Colts need this game and they'll play like it.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+375 6-2-1 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS
+190 3-1-2 IN LAST 6 IND ATS PICKS

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
Thu 12/3

Indianapolis @ Houston | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Houston +3.5

LOSS

Houston is frankly playing much better than Indianapolis right now yet getting 3.5 points at home? Sure, the Texans lost Will Fuller and Bradley Roby to suspension earlier this week, but Deshaun Watson is playing out of his mind. He hasn't thrown a pick in six straight games -- and the Texans are on extra rest off their Turkey Day cooking of the Lions. Indy's defense has been shredded in back-to-back losses, and that unit could again be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. It sounds as if starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo will miss the game with an injury. The Texans may win outright and I'd be shocked if they lost by more than 3.

+225 20-16-1 IN LAST 37 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS

Indianapolis

player
QBPhilipRivers
17.59fan duel$7,000
18.88draft kings$5,900
20.24cbs sports
player
RBJonathanTaylor
10.71fan duel$6,400
12.29draft kings$5,700
9.76cbs sports
player
RBJordanWilkins
5.49fan duel$5,500
6.03draft kings$4,200
5.29cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
P. RiversPhilip Rivers24/342721.700.750.0520.2
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
J. TaylorJonathan Taylor11.4510.374.40.139.8
J. WilkinsJordan Wilkins8.7400.174.60.095.3
N. HinesNyheim Hines7.0260.213.80.128.0
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
M. PittmanMichael Pittman Jr.3.9530.2513.60.047.0
T. HiltonT.Y. Hilton3.5460.1813.20.045.7
Z. PascalZach Pascal2.7340.1912.70.034.6
N. HinesNyheim Hines3.8290.237.60.128.0
T. BurtonTrey Burton3.0280.309.20.035.5
M. JohnsonMarcus Johnson1.6280.0717.60.023.2
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
I. DSTIND DST3.130.890.701.61.92.4

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Marlon Mack, Parris Campbell, Chad Williams, Malik Hooker, Marvell Tell III, Ben Banogu, Rolan Milligan, Dezmon Patmon, Jacob Eason, Noah Togiai
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Houston

player
QBDeshaunWatson
22.19fan duel$8,200
23.87draft kings$7,500
24.72cbs sports
player
RBDavidJohnson
8.85fan duel$6,200
10.23draft kings$5,400
7.8cbs sports
player
RBDukeJohnson
8.35fan duel$6,000
10draft kings$5,800
7cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
D. WatsonDeshaun Watson24/342841.700.870.0724.7
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
D. JohnsonDavid Johnson9.6330.273.40.127.8
D. JohnsonDuke Johnson9.3290.193.10.127.0
D. WatsonDeshaun Watson6.0270.324.40.0724.7
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
B. CooksBrandin Cooks5.6880.3615.80.0611.2
K. CouteeKeke Coutee4.4420.329.60.325.9
J. AkinsJordan Akins3.1390.1712.50.034.9
D. FellsDarren Fells2.3300.3413.10.025.1
D. JohnsonDuke Johnson2.7250.129.10.127.0
D. JohnsonDavid Johnson2.1220.1410.50.127.8
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
H. DSTHOU DST1.260.750.681.51.82.2

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Isaiah Coulter, Gareon Conley, Bradley Roby, C.J. Prosise, Benardrick McKinney, Michael Thomas, Brennan Scarlett, Nate Orchard, P.J. Hall, Dylan Cole, Andrew Brown, Eddie Vanderdoes, Cullen Gillaspia
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 12/06/2020 17:01 GMT