The Cowboys have won eight straight division games at home, and I like their current form. Washington dominated the Bengals only after Cincinnati lost Joe Burrow. Look for Andy Dalton to go deep against Washington fill-in safety Troy Apke, leading to big plays and a Dallas cover.

This game is on the tipping point of 2.5 (-115) and 3 (+100) at most sportsbooks, so shop around or wait so you do not have to take the full three points. There looks to be a lot of momentum toward the Cowboys here, but my pick is not based on last week's win over the Vikings. Rather, it's the skill position talent disparity. Terry McLaurin is expected to play but may not be 100% for the Football Team. And ... that's it. The Cowboys' trio of Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb are enough to sway the game for me. Andy Dalton looks more comfortable now that he's had multiple practices as the starter. Dallas is also 8-1 against Washington on Thanksgiving, for whatever that is worth. I would take this at either -2.5 or -3 but shy away or make a half-wager at 3.5.

I've been hoping this would move to either 3.5 or 2.5 today, but at 3 I'm not touching it -- we'll take the moneyline way out. Dallas seems to have found itself in back-to-back covers with a strong running game and probably will be very emotional today to win for strength and conditioning coordinator Markus Paul. He was rushed to the hospital Tuesday and died Wednesday (non-COVID reasons). By all accounts, he was beloved in the locker room so I expect an inspired Cowboys effort in his honor. Washington, meanwhile, is winless on the road.

The Cowboys have put together two strong performances, narrowly falling to Pittsburgh and then winning outright as 7-point underdogs in Minnesota. This is a good spot because Washington's 20-9 win over Cincinnati was misleading, given the Bengals lost Joe Burrow early in the second half. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time. Plus, it's a revenge spot after Dallas was humiliated at Washington earlier this season. Back Dallas.

The lookahead line here was Cowboys -1, so we're getting two points based on their offense finally having a pulse against the Vikings. But their defense was also terrible, and had it not been for Vikings fumbles and penalties, they might have given up 40-plus points. Now the Cowboys have to face a better defense with a much stronger D-line to test their problematic O-line, and if the Washington defense shows up, Alex Smith and Co. can do enough to win this game outright. The run game is getting better for Washington, and Smith himself should have success throwing against a bad Cowboys secondary. It comes down to this: Washington will score points, but can we say the same for sure for Dallas?

Have America’s bettors soured on America’s Team? This spot is small, perhaps because the memory of Washington’s 25-3 romp in the first matchup this year remains fresh. Factor in, also, Dallas’ 1-8 ATS record on Thanksgiving Day since 2011. However, the Cowboys have vastly improved, taking unbeaten Pittsburgh to the wire two games ago and tripping up Minnesota on Sunday. The ATS slump on the holiday is partly explained by Dallas having been a substantial favorite. Its straight-up mark is 4-5 this decade. A victory here should come with a cover.