ATS records for both teams can be thrown out here given that neither is good in that area; plus, homefield advantage is hardly relevant this season. What I'm looking at is how these teams have played recently without giving too much weight to the actual results. The Ravens have held up against far better defenses than this but were victims of circumstance in the Patriots game last week due to the weather. The Titans, meanwhile, have lost three of four now that opponents have figured out a way to slow down Ryan Tannehill; their lone win came over the lowly Bears. I like Baltimore better at -5 if you can get it, but I'm willing to take it anyway.

Tennessee's offense has struggled over the last four games, scoring just 85 points. Baltimore has scored 65 points and allowed 61 over its last three contests, averaging 21.7 and 20.3, respectively. The Ravens' defense has been solid all season and will look to avenge last year's playoff loss to the Titans. Tennessee RB Derrick Henry ran for 195 yards in that game.

The Titans have gone Over the total in six of their nine games, and the weather will be outstanding at Baltimore with hardly any wind, which is perfect for an Over. But I like the Ravens defense to step up and slow the game down, and I like the Ravens to keep running and show that last week’s loss to the Pats was an anomaly. Ravens have gone Under in six of their games so far. Under is the top play.

After dropping during the week, this line steamed back up after six Titans were ruled out, but I think the absence of those players matters less than the Ravens likely being without Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. That should give Derrick Henry the opportunity to have a big game on the ground and keep an offense that was already scoring 17-24 points in tough matchups from being shut down. On the other side, the Ravens have suffered losses on their offensive line this year that have lowered the ceiling for the offense, and that should keep them in range of Tennessee all game at the worst and possibly playing catch up if Henry and Ryan Tannehill can consistently beat an undermanned Baltimore defense.

I might otherwise worry about the Ravens looking ahead to Thanksgiving Night and a rematch with Pittsburgh, but Sunday is a payback game vs. the Titans, who ran roughshod over that excellent Baltimore defense in the Divisional Round upset of last season's playoffs. Lamar Jackson admitted the Ravens were somewhat looking past Tennessee. The Titans also have a large laundry list of injured players, and it seems as if Ryan Tannehill has been solved by opposing defenses: Take away the threat of play action. Last but not least, the Titans are 0-3 ATS on the road.

Baltimore may be forced to open up offensively a bit more due to TE Nick Boyle's knee injury. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the Ravens have a lot of untapped potential in their receiving corps. In addition, Tennessee's secondary is having its issues. Look for Baltimore to make this a 'catch-and-shoot' game, putting tremendous strain on the Titans' defense.

Baltimore gives up 4.5 yards per carry and faces a rested Derrick Henry, as the Titans played on Thursday in Week 10. The Ravens are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as home favorites. Grab the points.