Missed the best value on this game, but it's no matter because the Rams are the right side here. Everyone is down on Los Angeles after its showing against Miami and writing off Seattle's last loss as a fluke, but neither is an accurate representation of these teams. Sean McVay has scored almost at will against the Seahawks since he took over the Rams, and L.A. is 4-2 against Seattle in six meetings. Russell Wilson was kept in the pocket last week against the Bills due to their strong defensive line. Guess what the Rams bring to the table? This is going to be a great game, but L.A. will win by a field goal.
Seattle will be without its top two running backs (Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde) and starting center, plus that porous defense is down both starting cornerbacks. The Rams are about as healthy as possible at this point of the season off their bye week. My guess is this gets up to L.A. -3 by kickoff. Take the Rams before it does. Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. the NFC West.
The last five L.A. games have generated an average of 37.5 points, which suggests this won’t be a typical Seahawks game where the scoreboard resembles a pinball machine. QB Russell Wilson is elusive to about everyone but Rams DT Aaron Donald, who has sacked him a dozen times. With RBs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde scratched, L.A.’s defense knows going in that Seattle cannot count on a balanced attack. Wilson’s big-play capabilities could be constrained; the Rams have yet to allow a TD on a pass thrown at least 20 yards.
I have a very difficult time not picking the Seahawks as underdogs. Or, to be more specific, when Russell Wilson is an underdog. Russ has been a monster ATS throughout his career, but he's truly special as an underdog. Since taking over as the Seahawks starter in 2012 (has it really been that long?) Seattle is 27-13-2 ATS as an underdog. When they're a dog to a division opponent that number improves to 9-2 ATS. There's simply no way in the world I can do anything but back the Seahawks in this spot. Sure, it's going to be stressful because all Seattle games are crazy, but that's part of the fun.
I love the Rams this week. Seattle gives up an NFL-worst 455.8 yards per game. L.A. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss, and the Rams had an extra week to stew over their defeat in Miami. Sean McVay will have his team ready for this one.
The week off came at a great time for the Rams, as Cooper Kupp (wrist), Tyler Higbee (hand) and Darrell Henderson (quad) needed time to heal. This is a great bounceback spot for LA's offense against Seattle's porous defense. The Rams also should get a boost from the return of safety Jordan Fuller and the debut of defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson. Lay the small number.
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