Jrue Holiday is back for Boston, but is he ready to play heavy minutes off that hammy? Payton Pritchard topped this number in three of the five first-round games vs. Orlando -- including easily in both that Holiday played. Pritchard, the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 14.3 PPG during the RS and our model has him at 10.7 tonight.

We are getting buy low value because Jrue Holiday missed the final 3 games vs ORL with a hamstring injury. But he is off the injury report and had 12 days off. We are projecting him for his normal 11 points in 32 minutes. He has crushed this number vs the Knicks, averaging 13.2 and scoring 9+ in 7 of his last 8 vs NY. He has gone over in 12 of his last 16. Payton Pritchard’s points line is just 7.5 and Derrick White’s is just 14.5, so oddsmakers are not indicating that they will get more minutes and shots than normal. Holiday is one PG who can defensively deal with Jalen Brunson’s physicality at point guard, so he needs to play 30+ min.

Jayson Tatum closed out the Magic by scoring at least 35 points in each of the final three games of their series. That’s a Magic team that had the second-best defensive rating in the league during the regular season. The Knicks ranked 13th in defensive rating. Tatum faced the Knicks four times this season and scored 37, 40, 25 and 32 points in those games. With a ton of minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way again, over is the way to go here.

Adding Karl-Anthony Towns (for Julius Randle) has provided a bit more explosiveness to this season's Knicks, but perhaps at the expense of some of Tom Thibodeau's traditional preferred hard edge. Tibs has also played his starters as much as any coach, and while Jalen Brunson did miss some late-season action and resultant wear-and-tear, the Knicks looked to tire at times on defense in the nervous first round vs. Detroit. Obliged to play slower vs. Orlando in the opening round, the Celtics should be able to run more in this series, and Jayson Tatum's sore wrist has had a few extra days to heal. Note all four regular-season meetings cleared tonight's 212.5, and overs are on a 14-5 playoff run. Play Knicks-Celtics Over

In Josh Hart's last three meetings with the Celtics this season, he put up 28, 40 and 28 combined points, rebounds and assists. He's pivotal in this matchup because the Celtics choose to guard him with Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford or Luke Kornet. That gives Hart space to operate and be aggressive offensively. Hart also cleared this prop total in five of six first-round playoff games. Hart averaged 37.3 minutes in the series against Detroit and played at least 38 minutes in the final three regular-season matchups with Boston.

Playoffs are about the stars and Tatum shined fairly bright in the first round despite injury. I expect a stone-cold assassin in this series, out-dueling Jalen Brunson and carving a Knicks D that had no answers for him in regular season. Tatum averaged 33.5 v Knicks shooting 53.5% from the field and 47.8 from behind the arc. Look out. He has scored 31+ in 5 of his last 7 games in the postseason. He was also a +14.5 vs NYK this season, a menace to them at both ends of the court. You cannot sellout to defend him because he can create for himself in so many ways and is surrounded by arguably the best cast in basketball. Brutal assignment for the Knicks.

I don't buy Knicks vs legit top NBA teams and haven't all season. Fading them against the elite has served me well and watching they sputter quite a bit vs the youthful Pistons has me back to the well. Their starters were rode too hard and Jalen Brunson tries to do too much, too often, and KAT goes AWOL too much, Knicks 2-14 ATS vs top 6 NBA teams, with average cover margin of -9.28. Woof. Have losses to the Celtics by 23, 27 and 13, with a meaningless win way late in the regular season. This is a brutal match-up for them. Celtics would have had more trouble with the Pistons. Knicks D is more middling than studly. Celtics size and depth are issues.

Josh Hart is playing massive minutes for the Knicks and started to appear worn down versus the Pistons. Hart led the NBA in MPG during the regular season and I anticipate him playing huge minutes in this series against Boston. Game 1 isn’t until Monday so Hart will get 3 full days of rest which should really help him considering he was fatigued down the stretch. We’re getting a discount on this combo line.