Beating the Patriots is nice, but New England isn't good, and that's not suddenly going to make me believe in Buffalo against a Seattle team that is absolutely rolling. The Seahawks are generally not affected by long-distance travel, and while their running game and defense still need some work, there are at least reinforcements coming in the latter area this week. Let Russ Cook and watch Seattle cover.

The No. 32-ranked Seahawks' defense allows 28 ppg, but Russell Wilson and the offense have had their back by scoring 34 ppg, which is tops in the NFL. The result has worked out well for 6-1 Seattle and has also helped the over go 5-2. The Bills will be the next team to put 30-plus points on the board against them and get their offense moving after four straight sluggish offensive performances (0-4 ATS).

Seattle's defense is getting healthier and Russell Wilson should outplay Josh Allen. Buffalo hasn't covered any of its last four games. The Bills could have lost outright last week if Cam Newton didn't fumble. Their defense isn't very good and they won't be able to cover Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

The Seahawks are 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in the Eastern time zone. Their defense took a step forward last week, and it should look even better Sunday with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Lay the small number.

The Bills have not been as impressive as their 6-2 record suggests, particuarly lately. The defense posted a pair of good games against limited offenses over the last two weeks but still ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass, and that's not going to get it done against Russell Wilson. The Seahawks also have a bad pass defense but Josh Allen has been incredibly inconsistent and has cooled off considerably from his run during the first four weeks. I think the Bills will have to catch some breaks to win this game, and I like laying less than 3 serving as some protection to a backdoor cover with this Seattle defense.