The Chargers being a one-point road dog tells you everything you need to know. Los Angeles is the better overall team entering this game, but nobody trusts it because of its numerous late-game collapses. That is completely fair. But rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has also been other-wordly in his first year, and he has Keenan Allen today, who was ruled healthy enough to play. This is a bit of a flier pick, but the Chargers are the team that has something to prove, and I don't like the Raiders' dinged-up OL.

The Raiders are a good team to look Over on, as they rank fifth in points per drive on offense but 31st on defense. The Chargers defense hasn't played up to expectations this year, while rookie Justin Herbert has shown the ability to move the ball downfield. Expect a ton of points in this one as one or both teams should hit 30.

The burden on Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert has been huge. The story has been blown leads, and a low point was hit in last week’s meltdown against Denver. On Sunday, expect Los Angeles to be focused against the Raiders, who have won two straight road games. Buy low here on the Chargers.

The Raiders have been bad against the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 117.1 yards per game. Meanwhile the Chargers are coming off a big rushing performance against Denver (38 rushes, 210 yards, 5.5 yards per carry). Also hot rookie quarterback Justin Herbert faces a Las Vegas defense that is allowing a passer rating of 95.9 this season (19th in the NFL). My model says the Chargers cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this number. I love L.A.

Throw out last week's Las Vegas/Cleveland game because of the weather. the Raiders scored 30-plus points in three of their first five games, and their defense allows an average of 29.0 points per game. The Chargers took major hits to their defense early in the year and have suffered, allowing 26.4 points per game 20th worst in the NFL. The Chargers offense is led by rookie Justin Herbert's big right arm, and the total has gone Over in L.A.'s last four games. Herbert's offense ranks 11th best in DVOA.

This is a good-weather matchup of explosive offenses versus average-to-bad defenses. The Over has cashed in four straight Chargers' games, while the Over is 4-1-1 in the last six Raiders' games. That includes a cold, blustery Under in Cleveland last week. Go Over.

Anthony Lynn is a horrible coach; the Chargers just find ways to lose. Derek Carr is playing well, the Raiders have a solid running game and I like them to stay hot.

We're getting value on the Chargers based on last week's results. The Raiders pulled out a gutsy win in Cleveland, but they were also fortunate the Browns had so many drops and miscues. L.A. blew another big lead. However, the Chargers are better on a per-play basis, both offensively and defensively, and I think this is the week their talent wins out.