The Saints will once again be without Michael Thomas, but I still like them to cover at Chicago. They've covered eight of their past nine road games. Last year, the Bears allowed a season-high 36 points to the Saints, also at Soldier Field. Lay the points.

The Saints go marching into Soldier Field without three of their top four receivers. QB Drew Brees might have gotten by with the shortage in years past. Given his declining arm strength and high winds that will affirm the host town’s nickname of Windy City, Brees could be flailing. The Bears have better luck with their receivers as chief threat Allen Robinson has exited concussion protocol. Chicago is 8-4 straight-up under coach Matt Nagy in the aftermath of defeats and 5-0 on short weeks such as this one.

I really don't want to give this many points to a decent home team, but the Bears are going to be without No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson (frankly, their only good skill position player) and top offensive lineman/center Cody Whitehair due to injury. That unit can't score even with them in the lineup. Also, Chicago's two top defenders, Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson, are banged up. They'll play, but how well? On the flip side, Drew Brees is expected to finally get All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas back. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their past six vs. teams at least two games over .500. Make it 1-6.

The Bears have a great defense and a terrible offense, and that's led to five of their last six games going Under 40 points. Even with Michael Thomas potentially coming back in this game, I love going Under here as I don't trust Drew Brees to do a lot throwing the ball in what should be very windy conditions. While the Saints defense has given up a lot of points, they've played well against the run, with a No. 4 ranking in DVOA. So unless Nick Foles turns back into the Super Bowl version of himself rather than what we've seen from him this year, we should feel pretty good about the Bears offense keeping us Under this total.

It is becoming increasingly hard to trust the Bears on a weekly basis. Mainly it's hard to trust their offense, as QB Nick Foles has issues in avoiding pressure, and they don't have any run game to speak of. If the Bears defense can't score, or they get a special teams touchdown, then it will be hard for them to find the end zone at a good-enough pace to keep up with New Orleans.

I love the Saints even if they're not completely healthy. Last week, Drew Brees hit eight different receivers. Plus, New Orleans is better on the road: The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Bears' offense won't be able to keep up.